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August, 2011:

Cathay profit dives 59pc on big rise in fuel costs

South China Morning Post — 11 August 2011

Lack of gains from disposals also blamed for lower earnings of HK$2.8 billion for the first half to June

High oil prices took a heavy toll on Cathay Pacific Airways (SEHK: 0293)’ half-year profit, which came in at just HK$2.8 billion, down 59 per cent on the same period last year, the airline reported yesterday.

Also contributing to the big drop in profit was the absence of any gains from disposals, compared with a HK$2.16 billion gain in the same period last year from the sale of investments in subsidiaries.

Fuel costs rose HK$6.46 billion or 41 per cent to HK$18.56 billion. The jet fuel price jumped 53 per cent on average to US$128 per barrel, but fuel hedging, which covered 30 per cent of fuel consumption in the year and 20 per cent next year, helped Cathay pocket HK$962 million in hedging gains.

The drop in profit has not deterred the carrier from rejuvenating its fleet. Cathay announced yesterday it had ordered 12 new aircraft for HK$25.6 billion. The latest order will raise the number of aircraft on order over the period to 2019 to 97 – 79 wide-bodied passenger planes and 18 freighters. The estimated cost for the total order book is HK$200 billion. Some of the new planes will replace older aircraft, resulting in a net increase of 37 per cent from an existing fleet of 170.

The latest order is for four Boeing 777-300 extended-range passenger planes and eight Boeing 777-200 freighters, which will be primarily used on regional and European routes.

On the commercial impact of the emissions trading scheme proposed by the European Union for next year, chief executive John Slosar said the extra cost would be passed on to passengers since the carrier was required to buy carbon credits to neutralise its emissions.

The scheme is part of the EU’s plan to cut emissions by 20 per cent from the 1990 levels by 2020. Cathay has described the scheme as discriminatory as it penalises long-haul carriers since the EU will charge flights to and from Europe, including non-EU areas.

“We are fully covered and have already bought the carbon credits for next year,” Slosar said.

He did not detail the costs and Cathay has yet to decide by how much each European ticket would be priced higher. European routes account for about 20 per cent of the airline’s total traffic.

Mainland carriers have said the emission scheme would cost them 800 million yuan (HK$973.44 million) next year, which translates to 300 yuan more for each ticket.

For the six months to June, Cathay reported a 15.9 per cent year-on-year rise in passenger ticket sales to HK$31.77 billion. Weakening cargo demand since April narrowed cargo sales growth to 7.7 per cent at HK$11.6 billion.

After an exceptionally good year in 2010, when the carrier enjoyed record earnings, soaring fuel prices and softening cargo demand have cast a cloud on the outlook for the remainder of the year.

If the recession in the global economy is sustained, cargo demand would continue to weaken, chairman Chris Pratt said. “But Hong Kong and Cathay are in quite a special place and as China continues to do well, we will benefit,” he said.

Aircargo news

http://www.aircargonews.com/0811/FT110808.html

http://www.aircargonews.com/FT11/Hongkonglead080811.jpg

In some quarters, capacity sharing partnerships between HKIA and airports in southern China have been advanced as an alternative to HKIA moving forward with plans to build a third runway. Cathay Pacific has been rather outspoken on the issue, pointing out quite reasonably that Shenzhen and Hong Kong have separate governments, border controls and administrative systems. They also have different currencies, immigration requirements and air services agreements, not to mention leading operators and stakeholders.
http://www.aircargonews.com/FT11/chinesewarehouse.jpg “Even if the challenges outlined above could somehow be resolved, there’s no reason to think that the other PRD airport hubs would surrender their runway capacity to Hong Kong. All of the PRD airports are in competition and this is good for passengers and other users,” said Cathay in one statement.
As HKIA weighs up its expansion options, the truth of the matter is that competition between Hong Kong and its Mainland rivals is fierce now and will intensify in the coming decade.
As previously reported here, the Pearl River Delta region of southern China produces over 25 percent of the country’s exports and is responsible for more than 10 percent of national industrial output. Over the last decade HKIA has retained its dominance of air cargo uplift from the region, a dominance that helped it become the world’s leading cargo airport in 2010. But its cross-border rivals of Guangzhou (CAN) and Shenzhen (SZX) are making inroads.
CAN saw volumes rise almost 20 percent in 2010 to 1.14m metric tons, helping the airport retain its status as the 21st largest cargo airport globally, according to figures from Airports Council International. Shenzhen, meanwhile, is now the 24th largest and one of the fastest growing cargo airports in the world, handling some 809,363 tons in 2010, a year-on-year gain of 33.6 percent.
Both airports have ambitious plans to expand by building additional runways and already boast the presence of major hubs operated by leading carriers – UPS at SZX and FedEx at CAN. The two logistics majors have been highly vocal about the service benefits that have been possible since the hubs were established. Both airports are now also improving service levels, supported by strong investment in hinterland infrastructure from regional and federal authorities.
http://www.aircargonews.com/FT11/alwynMendonca.jpg Alwyn Mendonca, (left) Managing Director for South China and Hong Kong at GAC, said these efforts are now bearing fruit. In the past, 90 percent of GAC’s airfreight cargo was handled at HKIA because it was the most cost-effective option, especially since GAC builds its own units in Hong Kong.
“However,” he added, “we are gradually seeing more cargo moving directly through Guangzhou and Shenzhen as customs in Southern China becomes more efficient. For every shipment, we carefully evaluate all options to find the best, and most cost-effective, way to get the cargo to its final destination.
“There has been considerable improvement in customs services at both CAN and SZX in the past few years. Paperless export declarations are now a reality for some general cargo, depending on the commodity, and it is now possible to complete the process within a day.”
Christian Hein, Vice President for air freight Product Management in the Asia Pacific at Schenker, said improved customs services were seeing more cargo directed to CAN and SZX, a trend he predicted would accelerate.
“There are more domestic and international carriers calling into these two airports now and they offer good connections overall,” he added.
“There are increasingly more customers requesting us to operate directly out of these two airports due mainly to their proximity to manufacturing operations, and to a certain extent, an increasingly influential and sizeable consumer market.
http://www.aircargonews.com/FT11/RobertTimmerman.jpg “Though the fuel surcharge level is higher than Hong Kong, the overall freight rate all-in is still competitive.”
Robert Timmerman, (right) Area Manager Greater China at Panalpina, said that although airfreight rates were attractive from mainland airports, add-on fuel and security surcharges ultimately aligned pricing with HKIA.      “The fact is that the carrier portfolio in both Shenzhen—mainly served by Jade Airlines to date, and Guangzhou, which sees a diversified portfolio going forward, combined with the expanding China Southern fleet including Boeing 777 freighters—will allow us to provide direct lift from and to Mainland China to support the growth.
“Hong Kong, however, will retain its strengths in view of the local trading solutions available and successfully conducted for years.
“A dilemma going forward related to airlifting through Mainland airports are the restrictions related to second customs’ bond transfer. This cannot be conducted at present. If the Logistics Provider could build Aircraft ULDs themselves this would substantially increase control and thus reduce exposure on damages.”
http://www.aircargonews.com/FT11/Andy.Weber080811.jpg Andy Weber, (left) President of Kuehne + Nagel Asia Pacific, said CAN and SZX still lacked sufficient route coverage, flight frequency and airport cargo handling options, but had a speed advantage over HKIA in terms of accessing factories in the PRD because of overland transit times.
“Buyers increasingly demand high-speed delivery of products or components, and the time lost can constitute a competitive constraint,” he explained.
“This would suggest that Hong Kong’s future as a key air-cargo hub will heavily depend on its capability in providing speedy intermodal transports by land, sea or air between Hong Kong International Airport and the factories in South China.”
The final word on competition between HKIA and southern Mainland China rivals goes to Hein: “An additional runway [at HKIA] would definitely enhance competitiveness. Nevertheless, the competition between HKIA and other South China regional airports is keen and will remain so for years to come.”

Aviation adviser calls for regional airspace accord

South China Morning Post – 9 Aug 2011

Authority’s consultant says pact with neighbours could help ease Southeast Asia’s crowded skies

A consultant who studied plans to build a third runway at Chek Lap Kok airport has recommend that Hong Kong enter a pact with Southeast Asia’s other major air-traffic hubs to ease the region’s crowded airspace.

London-based aviation adviser NATS said in a report the Airport Authority released yesterday that better information sharing between the region’s big cities could let passengers spend less time in holding patterns or sitting on the tarmac.

The firm urged local authorities to spearhead the creation of a regional airport “cluster” to better exchange information when bad weather or other events snarl air traffic.

“There is currently no means of regulating traffic within the Southeast Asian area except by local agreements between area control centres,” said NATS, which had previously studied the implications of building a new landing strip at the busy Lantau Island airport.

“This lack of capacity management allows significant traffic peaks to develop,” the report continued.

The 13-year-old Hong Kong International Airport, which is running at 90 per cent of capacity at peak hours, has already formed a network with airports in Taiwan and Japan since receiving the report.

“If there is a storm over Taiwan, for example, the airports there should notify us so we could stop our flights from taking off,” said one Hong Kong civil aviation officer.

The consultant also advised aviation authorities to liaise with airlines over the amount of time their pilots spend on the runway.

The report found that while the average plane landing in Hong Kong stays on the runway for 54.9 seconds before taxiing to the terminal, a flight into London’s overcrowded Heathrow airport makes way for other planes in less than 50 seconds.

The airport could increase its capacity by training pilots to leave the runway more quickly, NATS found. The civil aviation officer said several air carriers had pledged to alert their pilots to the problem. “Sometimes pilots linger on the runway in order to take the closest exit to stand,” the official said. “Now we ask them to leave the runway as soon as they can.”

The firm also proposed Hong Kong to assume a leading role in processing air traffic data among the five airports in the Pearl River Delta including Guangzhou, Macau, Shenzhen and Zhuhai, to improve traffic flow. Hong Kong and the mainland have long been at odds over which side should give up its system and no immediate solutions are expected.

Airport plan won’t fly without fuel

South China Morning Post – 9 Aug 2011

The Airport Authority should not overlook the threat of peak oil in its forecast

If a third runway is added to Hong Kong International Airport, it would not be fully operational until the 2020s. The Airport Authority argues that it is necessary, based on projections of rising demand for air travel.

But an important consideration is missing in most of the debates: the probability that so-called “peak oil” (the peak and subsequent decline in worldwide oil production) will occur during the next two decades.

“Peak oil” analysis is based on a comparison between major discoveries of oilfields in the past, production from those fields, and the decline in major discoveries in recent decades. Many existing fields have already gone into decline, and a number of countries have seen a drop in domestic oil production for this reason.

The timing of the global peak of oil production is hard to predict. But a number of analysts have concluded that it is imminent. For example, a report prepared for the US government in 2005 by Robert Hirsch and others estimated that peak oil would occur “within 20 years” (that is, by 2025 or earlier), and that this would cause “protracted economic hardship”, including a “severe liquid fuels problem” for the transport sector.

Some plants of the genus Jatropha can be grown on marginal land and processed into jet fuel, and research continues on algae as a fuel source, but there is a serious problem scaling up production to supply the 60 billion to 70 billion gallons of jet fuel consumed annually by the world’s airlines. Biofuels will evidently not be able to replace oil as the main fuel source for aviation.

There is uncertainty in predictions about “peak oil”, and the impacts will be complicated, because big increases in oil prices lead to recessions, temporarily reducing demand for oil. But one certainty is that the price of oil will be higher in the future because its depletion is irreversible.

The Airport Authority is proposing to spend billions on a third runway on the basis of estimated continual growth in demand for air travel. But those estimates should include a consideration of alternative projections and probable losses if “peak oil” occurs within the coming two decades, as has been widely predicted.

Hong Kong has enough spare airport capacity to cover increases in demand to the early 2020s; upgrading projects will increase capacity to 74 million passengers by 2030, at a fraction of the cost of a third runway. So, Hong Kong could accommodate substantial increases in air travel without the extra financial and environmental costs of a third runway, for which the demand may disappear before it has been completed. In any case, “peak oil” scenarios should be part of the analysis.

Graeme Lang is a professor in the Department of Asian and International Studies at City University of Hong Kong


Hong Kong Airport Runway May Cause Pollution to Exceed Limit

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-09/hong-kong-airport-runway-may-cause-pollution-to-exceed-limit-1-.html

By Jasmine Wang – Aug 9, 2011 2:59 PM GMT+0200

Hong Kong airport’s proposed HK$136 billion ($17 billion) third runway may cause the level of pollutant nitrogen dioxide in the facility’s vicinity to exceed the limit set by the city’s government, according to a study.

Annual cumulative concentrations of the gas in the airport and nearby areas may range between 16.5 micrograms and 81.1 micrograms per cubic meter, Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd., appointed by the Airport Authority Hong Kong to assess the effect on air quality, said in its report. The government has proposed halving the legal limit for nitrogen dioxide, found in vehicle exhaust, in Hong Kong to 40 micrograms per cubic meter.

The consultant’s 2010 report was one of the eight posted on the authority’s website yesterday as it performs a three-month public consultation to end Sept. 2. Another report by HSBC Holdings Plc said rising construction costs may increase the authority’s pre-financing cash shortfall.

The air quality report was based on a maximum projected capacity of 620,000 annual flight movements. The authority will conduct a more detailed assessment and ensure the project complies with the law, it said in an e-mailed response to Bloomberg News questions. The authority also said HSBC’s report “has sought to establish a prudent financing plan such that the underlying financial profile of the AAHK remains robust.”

Cash Shortfall

The authority’s HK$112.8 billion pre-financing cash shortfall for the new runway may increase to HK$133 billion because of rising construction costs, according to a May 31 report by HSBC, a financial adviser for the project.

The third runway will cost HK$86.2 billion in 2010 prices, equivalent to HK$136.2 billion with inflation, according to the authority’s estimates.

Asia’s third-busiest airfield is considering the new runway to serve an estimated 97 million passengers by 2030. The project, which may take about nine years to complete, will also help handle 8.9 million tons of cargo.

The airport may need to reclaim about 650 hectares of land from the sea to build the runway. Groups including Civic Party lawmakers have opposed the plan on concern about its effect on marine wildlife, including the endangered pink dolphin.

Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (293), the city’s biggest carrier, said on June 2 that it gave “full and unequivocal backing” for the third runway. The city’s airport boosted passenger numbers about 10 percent last year to 50.9 million, trailing only Beijing and Tokyo Haneda in Asia.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jasmine Wang in Hong Kong at jwang513@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Neil Denslow at ndenslow@bloomberg.net

China Introduces a Unified Grid Feed-in Tariff for Solar Power

http://blog.cleantechies.com/2011/08/08/china-introduces-a-unified-grid-feed-in-tariff-for-solar-power/

http://blog.cleantechies.com/files/2011/08/5794630077_f231e41063-150x150.jpg

China’s government has introduced a unified grid solar power tariff, which analysts believe may produce a quickened pace for introducing solar power to private residences, along with boosting the stock of companies involved in solar development.

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing has set the solar power price charged by power plants to grid operators at 18 US cents per kilowatt-hour for projects which were approved before July 1 and are scheduled to become operational before the end of this year, The Shanghai Daily reported. The NDRC had previously approved on-grid tariffs on a case-by-case basis, adding that it would adjust the taxes in accordance with future investment costs and technology development.

Following the NDRC pronouncement, solar-related stocks rose on China’s stock exchanges, with GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd, China’s largest maker of polysilicon, the main raw material used to make photovoltaic panels, jumping 4.8 percent in a single day in Hong Kong HKEX stock exchange, while Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science and Technology Co rose 6.6 percent on the Shenzhen Component Index and SME trading.

Xiangcai Securities analyst Hou Wentao said, “The unified tariff will be positive to the industry in the long term because you now have a system in place. But in the near term, I don’t see any explosive growth in domestic installations.”

Article by Charles Kennedy, appearing courtesy OilPrice.com.

GAW

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/gaw_home_en.html

The Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) programme of WMO is a partnership involving 80 countries, which provides reliable scientific data and information on the chemical composition of the atmosphere, its natural and anthropogenic change, and helps to improve the understanding of interactions between the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere.

GAW focal areas are GHGsozoneUVaerosolsselected reactive gases, and precipitation chemistry.

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/gaw/measurements.html

Measurements

A network of measurement stations is the backbone of the GAW programme. This network consists of GAW Global and Regional measurement stations with additional measurements from Contributing stations. Both Global and Regional stations are operated by their host countries, either by their National Meteorological Services or by other national scientific organizations. More than 80 countries actively host GAW stations.

Currently GAW coordinates activities and data from 28 Global stations410 Regional stations, and 81 Contributing stations (see GAWSIS).

GAW Global and Regional Stations

GAW Global Stations

In recent years satellite programmes have produced important measurements of atmospheric compounds and related parameters that complement the GAW network measurements. When highly accurate local measurements from GAW ground-based stations are coupled with the near global coverage of satellite measurements it results in a more complete picture of atmospheric composition and processes on global scales, and provides complimentary checks of instrument calibrations. The Committee on Earth Observation (CEOS) has developed a strategy for such co-operation within an integrated system for monitoring of the atmosphere (WMO/GAW Report No.140 ).

Climate change

The South African Weather Bureau, together with the Fraunhofer Institute in Garmisch, Germany, maintains a research laboratory at Cape Point to monitor longterm changes in the chemistry of the earth’s atmosphere, which may impact upon climate. The laboratory, which was architecturally designed to blend into the western slopes of Cape Point , is one of the World Meteorological Organisations’ 20 Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) stations.
It monitors environmentally important air components, including trace gases like ozone, methane and carbon dioxide, as well as solar radiation and various meteorological parameters.   The air at Cape Point is regarded as being particularly pure for most of the time, thereby providing insights into such phenomenon a stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.

http://gaw.empa.ch/gawsis/reports.asp?StationID=35

Green group wants airport consultation extended

South China Morning Post -5 Aug 2011

Friends of the Earth says people need longer to consider information on airquality impacts

Green group Friends of the Earth has called for a public consultation on proposals to expand Hong Kong International Airport to be extended, claiming people need more time to digest information to be released on possible environmental impacts.

The Airport Authority – which has run a huge publicity campaign in favour of plans to build a third runway – bowed on Wednesday to public pressure, promising to release a set of eight consultancy reports, including one on the environmental considerations.

The new runway would involve reclaiming 600 hectares of sea north of Chek Lap Kok airport, which marine conservationists say are key white dolphin habitats. The other option proposed would see the airport terminal expanded.

Of around 1,000 people polled by Friends of the Earth last week, about 73 per cent said they had not heard about air quality impacts from the Airport Authority, while half said it was unreasonable to be asked to make an uninformed decision. It was subsequently announced the reports would be released next week – still less than a month before a September 2 deadline for the consultation.

Hahn Chu Hon-keung, Friends of the Earth’s environmental affairs manager, said potential impacts on air quality were a major concern but that the public was still in the dark.

“Even though they will release some reports next week, there is still not enough time for the public to swallow the information in just one month. They should extend the consultation period,” he said.

The group said it was highly unlikely that the third runway option would pass an environmental test as air quality objectives on nitrogen dioxide in Tung Chung, south of the airport, had already been breached.

A spokeswoman for the authority quoted an atmospheric expert as saying the airport was not a major source of air pollution in Tung Chung.

chifai.cheung@scmp.com

Jason Beerman: Do we really need a third runway?

http://www.cnngo.com/hong-kong/life/tell-me-about-it/jason-beerman-hong-kong-third-runway-600042

Jason Beerman: Do we really need a third runway?

Public consultation for Hong Kong’s next big infrastructure project is just an empty PR exercise

By Jason Beerman 5 August, 2011

jason beerman hong kong third runway

Hong Kong International Airport at Chek Lap Kok is a source of public pride for the people of Hong Kong, and rightfully so. It’s an engineering marvel as well as a case study in passenger logistics.

So when the Airport Authority, the government agency in charge of operations, rolled out its Master Plan 2030 on June 2 that espoused the need for expansion either in the form of enhancements to the current dual runway system or the development of a third runway, my initial reaction was, let’s go big. Let’s build a third runway that will make other airports cower.

Let’s cement our airport’s dominance as the world’s preeminent freight airport and one of the world’s busiest airports by passenger volume.

And don’t forget: This is Hong Kong. Of course we’re going to reclaim more land and build another runway. We have skyscrapers perched on mountainsides, our skyline is a who’s who of the world’s most eye-catching buildings, our transit network is damn near perfect and our bridges and tunnels form beautiful arterial webs, stringing plots of land together like constellations. It’s all enough to make a structural engineer weep with joy.

In a moment of exuberance, I logged onto the website that the Airport Authority has set up to solicit feedback during the current consultation period (which ends on September 2) and was about to lodge my preference for the third runway. Then I saw the price tag of HK$136.2 billion (factoring in inflation).

hong kong third runway

Plane-spotters doing their thing at Chek Lap Kok.

The cost of building the current incarnation of Chek Lap Kok and all its associated transport connections was only incrementally more at around HK$150 billion.

Look, I read through the whole of the Master Plan (and if you are a Hong Kong taxpayer, I recommend that you at least read the summary). I even read through the technical report.

I do not doubt that the airport in its current form will eventually be overwhelmed by the steady growth in both passenger and cargo traffic. I understand the opportunity costs of not confronting the need for expansion right now. But it seems that all this work was an exercise in putting the cart before the horse.

Unfortunately, this is a recurring tactic when it comes to large infrastructure projects in Hong Kong. A project idea emerges from behind closed doors with a price tag already attached, a public relations onslaught begins, a public consultation is staged, substantive questions are deflected, and the cement is inevitably poured.

Recent examples of projects that have employed this strategy include the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge project (which has been held up only due to a legal technicality), the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link, Route 10, and Hong Kong Disneyland.

In the case of the third runway, while the plan is admittedly comprehensive (if not completely one-sided), it alludes to several important issues but leaves them unresolved. As a taxpayer who will almost certainly be on the hook for the cost of the project, I find this quite disconcerting.

The public consultation process is merely for show. It resembles the American democratic process: we have one choice, and our sense of enfranchisement is illusory.

Most glaring is the nugget that, based on current financial projections and construction estimates, “we cannot finance either of the options through our internal cash flows and external prudent borrowing capacity.”

The plan goes on to say that depending on what is favored during the consultation period, the Airport Authority would then hash out the financing details.

Really? The question of how the project will be funded is arguably the most important issue at stake here, but it will be shunted aside until the consultation period is over. At that point, the decision will have been made, and the public will have no say over who will foot the bill.

In order for this consultation period to amount to anything more than a farcical semblance of some democratic process, it needs to embody more important decision-making.

Another thing that was alluded to, but not resolved, is the central issue of airspace in the Pearl River Delta (PRD).

There are five airports clustered around the delta, making the airspace in the region one of the most congested in the world. This congestion is compounded by the fact that the Chinese military wields significant control over the allocation of all mainland airspace, limiting routes and imposing altitude stipulations for all entering and exiting air traffic.

This arrangement places a finite limit on flight movements into or out of Chek Lap Kok, regardless of the number of runways, and until this issue is formally addressed and resolved, the necessity for a third runway is rendered moot.

Eva Cheng, Secretary for Transport and Housing, checks out a map of the airport with the proposed third runway.

This congestion will only get worse in the future, as Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport opened a second runway in July and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is reportedly planning to add three additional runways to its existing two.

In the technical report, the Airport Authority mentioned matter-of-factly, “to fully realize the potential capacity gain of a Third Runway, the PRD airspace will need to be redesigned.”

Like the casual treatment of the funding options, this key factor is seemingly left to chance, to be dealt with at some unforeseen point in the future.

Perhaps in response to a groundswell of wonder over the necessity of the proposed third runway given the current airspace conditions, Hong Kong’s Civil Aviation Authority scrambled in mid-July and announced that it had reached a consensus with authorities in Shenzhen and Macau on altering airspace restrictions.

But alas, no formal arrangement was agreed and no formal solution has been put into place.

In addition, there are further complications since each airport in the region operates distinct air traffic control systems and there is an overall lack of integration. As a result, trying to coordinate air traffic as it passes into adjacent airspace is inefficient and haphazard.

Let’s be honest though. This runway is likely to be built first, and these questions will be answered at some point down the road. The public consultation process is merely for show. Deconstruct it a bit and you realize that it resembles the American democratic process: we have one choice, and our sense of enfranchisement is illusory. So sit back and enjoy the ride.

And sometime in 2018 or so, get ready for the drumbeat that will accompany calls for a fourth runway. Given current growth estimates, the third runway will be at capacity in 2031.

Don’t say that the Airport Authority didn’t warn you — their plan is entitled Master Plan 2030, after all.

Read more: Jason Beerman: Hong Kong third runway project | CNNGo.com http://www.cnngo.com/hong-kong/life/tell-me-about-it/jason-beerman-hong-kong-third-runway-600042#ixzz1VrBe2RML