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June, 2008:

The Neglected Dangers Of Ultraviolet Exposure

Jun 22nd, 2008
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Updated on Jun 22, 2008 – SCMP

Everyone is aware of the dangers of air pollution; fewer people are concerned about those from ultraviolet light. Yet too much exposure to it can be just as dangerous. According to the World Health Organisation, four out of five cases of skin cancer result from too much exposure to sunlight. But a lesser known danger from ultraviolet light comes from a WHO statement, which warns up to 20 per cent of cataract cases worldwide are caused by such overexposure. If left untreated, cataracts can lead to blindness.

Hong Kong’s ultraviolet readings are among the highest in the world, mainly because of its position on Planet Earth. Clearly, more public education to raise awareness is needed. It is, therefore, commendable that the Observatory will start issuing hourly advice via public announcements from next month when ultraviolet (UV) levels reach “extreme exposure”, which means above 11 on the UV index.

Since 1999, the Observatory has been providing daily ultraviolet readings. Currently, visitors to its website – the most widely viewed of all the government Web services – can also find ultraviolet forecasts for the next day. But it provides only index levels, instead of precautions to take to avoid exposure. But, just as it now issues warnings when air pollution reaches dangerous levels, there is a need to extend the same service to sunlight exposure.

This new service will be especially important to schools, where young pupils are regularly exposed to the sun during physical education classes. While increasing numbers of schools now advise pupils to put on hats and use sunscreen lotion, many are still woefully unaware. Yet overexposure from a young age clearly increases health risks later in life. This month, a University of Hong Kong survey found people are not nearly as aware of the damage that excessive ultraviolet exposure can inflict on the eyes as of its ill-effects on the skin. Teachers and parents, therefore, need to be better educated about the dangers of too much exposure to sunlight.

Though the new service is being offered by the Observatory, the Education Bureau should join in efforts as well. Better awareness will help reduce the number of cancer and cataract cases in the years to come.

Xining Special Steel Company

Jun 22nd, 2008
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Province battles dual nightmares: black skies, 1m below poverty line

Shi Jiangtao – Updated on Jun 22, 2008

In the suburbs of Xining , the provincial capital and largest city of Qinghai , smokestacks at a large industrial plant spew billows of black, white and red smoke and steam into the city’s grey sky.

The chimneys belong to Xining Special Steel Company, the largest producer of stainless steel and structural iron in northwestern China and employer of 9,000 workers. Listed in Shanghai and one of Qinghai’s biggest taxpayers, the steel plant is the pride of the financially distressed local government.

The factory just a few kilometres upwind of the city centre makes no effort to curb or clean its emissions.

Local residents say they have suffered under thick, dirty fallout from the factory for decades.

“It is a nightmare to live near the factory,” said a resident whose husband works at the steel plant. “We used to see clear blue skies every day, but what else can we say? China is `the world’s factory’ now.”

Amid growing public anger, authorities have promised again this year to crack down on industrial pollution, which has shown signs of worsening in recent years.

The factory has been named and shamed repeatedly by local environmental authorities over the years, but that has not stopped it reappearing on the provincial green watchdog’s list of top industrial polluters.

Bai Ma , chairman of the Qinghai provincial committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, admitted that the plant has had serious pollution problems for years due to old equipment.

“Pollution is a serious problem with old equipment and the factory is trying to replace it or upgrade its steel-production technology,” he said. “But it needs a lot of money, which makes the cleanup effort difficult to proceed with smoothly.”

Most of Qinghai’s economic indicators show that its gross domestic product is among the smallest on the mainland.

“Qinghai’s GDP for 2006 was just 64.1 billion yuan [HK$72.84 billion], which was hardly comparable to eastern provinces,” said party chief Qiang Wei .

“Our local fiscal revenue in 2006 was 4.2 billion yuan, smaller than that of a district or a county in Beijing.”

The socio-economic disparities among the different regions in Qinghai are widening, according to official statistics.

Nearly 68 per cent of the provincial population, or 3.7 million people, are crowded into Xining and its eastern suburb Haidong prefecture, which is only 3 per cent of the total area. They absorbed 58 per cent of the provincial economic output.

About 20 per cent of the province’s total population, or 1.04 million people, live below the official poverty line, mostly in rural and mountain areas, with more than 60 per cent concentrated in the source regions of the Yangtze, Yellow and Lancang (Mekong) rivers.

Eliminating poverty remained the biggest challenge for the province, Mr Qiang said.

Provincial leaders insist that Qinghai has witnessed some extraordinary changes, with annual GDP registering double-digit growth for the past consecutive six years thanks to Beijing’s western-development policies.

But the province lags ever farther behind affluent coastal regions.

Guangzhou’s GDP for 2006 was 10 times that of Qinghai.

Despite the province’s 12 per cent rise in GDP last year, research by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences last year found that the province’s overall economic competitiveness had slipped.

But that could be the price Qinghai must pay while it tries to lift hundreds of thousands of people out of poverty and conserve the already fragile Tibetan Plateau, according to Mr Bai.

“Our government has made environmental conservation a prerequisite for economic development,” he said.

A total of 7.5 billon yuan has been invested in the river-source regions to relocate more than 40,000 Tibetan nomads in Guoluo, Huangnan and Yushu counties and reverse the degradation there.

The three areas have also been exempted from mandatory goals of economic growth since 2006.

“The top priority for the … regions is environmental conservation, which is crucial for sustainable development of the province as well as the whole Tibetan region,” said Governor Song Xiuyan .

Qinghai recently launched another ambitious campaign to clean up Qinghai Lake on the eastern edge of the vast Tibetan Plateau and an important wildlife refuge.

Ecological degradation in the province, experts warn, will affect the entire northwestern and Himalayan regions and pose grave threats to the upper reaches of the Yellow River.

Mr Bai said he was optimistic about the future of the province, which is rich in natural resources, including hydropower resources, Tibetan herbs, numerous saltwater lakes and the country’s largest potassium fertiliser production base.

He said the province attached great value to expanding schools and vocational education, and luring talent from around the country.

He made an appeal to Hong Kong to invest in the province. “Qinghai is a resource-abundant province that has yet to be fully explored.

“There is plenty of room for Hong Kong’s advantage in investment, talent and technology to play a bigger role in our future development.”

What Can Steer Us To Driving Electric?

Jun 22nd, 2008
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By Rachel Oliver – For CNN – 22nd June 2008

HONG KONG, China (CNN) — It’s small, affluent, tech-savvy and it has a very obvious pollution problem — Hong Kong is arguably an ideal destination for electric cars.

And despite the absence of a car-making industry, the city can now boast a home-made electric car all of its own. MyCar, a two-seater micro car, will roll of the production line for the very first time in October and will be available for purchase.

But you won’t find it on sale in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong still hasn’t got its act together when it comes to electric vehicles (EVs), according to the chief executive of MyCar’s manufacturer, EuAuto Technology, Chung Sin-ling.

She says the city lacks the necessary framework and policies that would make it viable for her company to sell MyCar here. So they are heading to Europe instead.

“In London they have government incentives to get people to switch from gasoline to electric vehicles,” explains Chung, citing the waiver of the congestion charge and free parking for EVs in London as an example.

“But that has to be driven by the government. In Hong Kong they are still debating whether to use diesel or whatever.”

Hong Kong is not without EVs though. Private organizations like local utility Hong Kong Electric has its own small fleet of them.

But according to Chung, the restrictions they have to operate under mean introducing them now into the mass market isn’t practical.

“[Hong Kong Electric] only use them inside their private site and they have to get a very special licence and they can’t drive outside their site and they are restricted to certain uses,” she says.

“We don’t want those kinds of restrictions.”

Make it hip, make it affordable

Europe to date has taken the lead when it comes to encouraging motorists to drive cleaner cars.

Most notably, London has cracked down on car-related pollution with the introduction of a congestion charge and, more recently, with additional fees for heavier polluting cars to pay on top.

Under the rules of the Low Emission Zone, for example, fees as high as $400 can be imposed on trucks and vans trying to enter Greater London that are more than six years old.

“There should be very high incentives for people [to drive EVs],” says chairman of local pollution lobby group, Clear the Air, Christian Masset.

But Masset says the political will is still not there to promote EVs in the city. He believes it is down to the market to stir up interest.

“This will only happen with market pressure – it is hard to see it otherwise,” says Masset.

“If the EV became hip, then it would have an effect.”

But in order for this kind of customer pressure to happen, customers need to want the cars in the first place. That’s about education, says Professor Eric Cheng, director of the Power Electronics Research Center at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, whose team was involved in the MyCar project.

And education needs to come from the government, he says.

“The government is not helping the car user,” says Cheng.

“It hasn’t put any special mechanism in place, any special law or regulation for motorists to drive EVs. I don’t think the government has done anything to persuade motorists to use EVs.”

Hong Kongers are not familiar with EVs he says, and are concerned about the technology so they need to be shown that EVs are just as good as petrol cars.

One obvious way to demonstrate that would be to change the public transportation system from diesel-fueled to electric-powered, he says.

“Taxis, minibuses, buses can be forced to go electric but the government isn’t doing anything,” says Cheng.

The government has in the past offered one-off grants to minibus drivers ranging from $7,000 to $10,000 to encourage them to convert from diesel to either LPG or electric.

However Cheng says stronger measures are needed.

“Voluntary schemes do not work. The government needs to put a mandatory scheme [in place], to start off with public transport so people can get used to it and see that it is good.”

And then there is the question of money. Cheng says the amount of money his department received to design MyCar was nowhere near enough and to him, it told him how important the government view EVs.

“The money involved was very small. It was about $130,000 for MyCar. It’s nonsense. You need tens of millions of dollars. How can we build a new generation of EVs for Hong Kong? We need to train the new engineers, the graduates, technicians,” he says.

“Car-makers want subsidies from the government, as the initial costs are very high. The government needs to give them financial support and I am not talking about one or two million Hong Kong dollars. We also need more investment in R&D.”

In the meantime Chung is making plans to sell MyCar in London, her first stop the London Motor Show in July to stir up some more interest. One day she hopes to come back to Hong Kong.

She says EuAuto Technology is ready now. The market isn’t though. And that, she says, is something that is in the government’s hands.

“We want to come here — as long as the policy is there to make it happen,” says Chung. “It would be sad and kind of ironic if we can sell them all over the world and not in our own home town.

“We have the customer, the market demand, and the product – we just need the government to support it.”

Hong Kong’s Carbon Trading Move

Jun 22nd, 2008
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Hong Kong’s carbon trading move too little, too late: analysts

22nd June 2008

HONG KONG (AFP) — Hong Kong has joined the international carbon trading structure with a promise to slash emissions, but analysts say the move will fail to produce any serious reductions in greenhouse gases.

“It is a bit of an impotent gesture and is about four years too late,” said Shane Spurway, head of carbon banking at Fortis Bank.

In a low-key press release sent out just before a public holiday weekend earlier this month, the city’s Environmental Protection Department said it had set up the legal framework to allow projects that could sell on their reductions in carbon emissions.

“These projects will help further reduce Hong Kong’s greenhouse gas emissions,” a spokesman for the department said in the statement.

But experts doubt that the belated decision will help reduce harmful carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Spurway said the projects that could have benefited from the early introduction of the scheme had already been planned and so would not be able to gain carbon credits under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

The mechanism, which was set up by the international community in Kyoto, Japan in 1997 and came into force in 2005, aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by creating a worldwide cap and trade system.

Developed countries, mainly in Europe, place a limit on the amount of gases factories can emit. To meet their obligations, the polluting industries can either reduce their own emissions or buy carbon credits from people who have made reductions, often in the developing world.

The reductions in the poorer parts of the world are easier and cheaper than the developed world and so have attracted the most investment.

China has been the biggest beneficiary, according to the World Bank which says it now produces more than 70 percent of all the world’s CDM projects, targeting such heavily-polluting industries as cement and chemicals.

Until now, Hong Kong has been unable to access financing for such projects, meaning that completed landfill or power station projects have been less profitable.

The delay in agreeing the scheme has meant any projects already planned are ineligible, as schemes must prove they would only take place with the extra investment, the so-called “additionality test”.

China Light and Power, a major Hong Kong energy firm with operations across the world, said there were no plans to begin CDM projects in Hong Kong.

“While we welcome the government’s announcement on CDM, right now we do not have any projects that would use it,” a spokeswoman told AFP.

Hong Kong and China Gas Company, which operates major landfill projects in Hong Kong which may have benefited from an earlier adoption of CDM, declined to comment.

Christine Loh, from think tank Civic Exchange which has been a vocal critic of Hong Kong’s environmental record, said the move showed that business, so often the driver of policy here, was finally getting interested in the issue.

“The financial community can see carbon trading getting to a level where the world is talking about it. They can see the new assets of the future — clean air and clean water,” she said.

Both Loh and Spurway said a more significant step by the Beijing and Hong Kong governments would have been to allow Hong Kong companies operating in China to benefit from carbon-related finance to cut emissions.

Currently, Hong Kong companies are treated like foreign enterprises in China. If they want to instigate schemes that would create carbon credits, they have to set up a joint venture with a Chinese firm, which many are unwilling to do.

“You have something like 90,000 Hong Kong-owned factories (in China), but because of the joint-venture requirement, they are probably a bit reticent to set up there,” said Spurway.

The Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce welcomed the government’s move, saying it would “enable Hong Kong to contribute directly to the global effort against climate change”.

But it added that it hoped Hong Kong companies would be able to get greater benefit from carbon reduction activity in China.

Hong Kong has faced strong criticism from campaigners for its environmental policy on issues ranging from the appalling air pollution to the failure to ban plastic bags.

Business groups have argued the poor air quality, blamed on the thousands of factories just across the border in China’s manufacturing hub, is damaging the city’s ability to attract top managers and compromising its position as an international finance centre.

Restrictions Unveiled To Cut Smog For Games

Jun 21st, 2008
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Peter Simpson and Woods Lee in Beijing – Updated on Jun 21, 2008 – SCMP

Long-awaited traffic plans to unravel Beijing’s gridlocked roads and cut choking smog for the Olympics were revealed by transport and environment chiefs yesterday.

As predicted, the capital’s 3.3 million car owners will be subjected to odd-even traffic restrictions for two months from July 20 to help ease congestion and reduce pollution during the Olympics and Paralympics.

“From July 20 to September 20, if the last number of your registration is odd, you can only drive on odd dates,” Zhou Zhengyu, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Committee of Communications, said.

Public servants will lead by example with 70 per cent of government cars among the affected vehicles.

Mr Zhou predicted that 45 per cent of the city’s estimated 3.29 million cars would be off the road during the 62-day period, reducing emissions by 63 per cent, with the worst 300,000 polluting vehicles heavily targeted through a yellow tag scheme that starts on July 1, which bans them from daytime streets.

By way of compensation for the inconvenience, drivers will be exempted during the period from road and vehicle taxes, which will cost the city’s coffers about 1.3 billion yuan (HK$1.47 billion).

People violating the ban by either ignoring it or seeking to use false number plates would be punished “according to relevant national and local regulations” and would lose the compensation, he said.

Security, emergency services, buses, taxis, sanitation vehicles, Olympics officials’ and diplomatic cars will be exempt.

Special Olympics lanes and public transport running with greater frequency are among other measures to be adopted for the August Games and the September 6-17 Paralympics.

“Smooth traffic and good air quality are important factors in hosting a successful Olympic Games and also in fulfilling Beijing’s promises to the International Olympic Committee.”

During the events, about 4 million passengers a day are expected to squeeze on to the public transport network, which will be boosted by three new subway lines.

Pollution has long been the main bugbear worrying the country as the Games approach. Many international athletes and environmentalists have loudly voiced their concerns in recent months.

The ultimate loss of face would arise if the International Olympic Committee was forced to order a rescheduling of endurance events to prevent damage to athletes’ health – a move it has repeatedly said it would not hesitate to take.

A test traffic ban was implemented in August. To most residents, the improvement in the air quality was not immediate. However, the authorities declared themselves satisfied.

Previously announced factory closures and operating-time reductions, plus the halting of construction projects come into effect on July 20.

As a thick level of pollution made worse by high humidity blanketed the city for a second day in a row yesterday – or slight pollution according to the government – Du Shaozhong , deputy chief of the city’s environmental protection bureau, claimed that what was visible to the eye did not necessarily pose a threat to health.

“Perception is often different from the scientific monitoring statistics. We base our findings on data.”

Residents appeared prepared for the two-month-long inconvenience and said they understood the reasons for it, a recent study suggested.

A CTR Market Research telephone poll of 2,000 revealed 93 per cent understood why the traffic restrictions had been put into place and suggested most were willing to take public transport with only 16.7 per cent saying they would use private cars during the Games.

As many as 88 per cent thought hosting the Games would improve the environment of the city – a big vote of confidence and expectation of the legacies promised by hosting the 2008 Olympics.

A private car owner who has driven on Beijing roads for a decade said: “I strongly propose continuing the new policy after the Olympics. Each of us will get used to days without cars, and it’s just an issue of habit.”

Watch the Video To see the press conference on the traffic management plans, visit www.scmp.com/video

Banqueter Zhou Turns Lean Green

Jun 21st, 2008
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Clara Mak – Updated on Jun 21, 2008 – SCMP

Actress Zhou Xun, who starred in Banquet, has become an eco-activist and is urging others to join her in fighting climate change.

“If only everyone on the planet were to contribute a little, the world would become a much better place to live,” she said. “Every day we see the sun, we hear birds humming, we feel the natural breeze. These are the things that are given to us by the Earth but unfortunately, our Earth is really sick now.”

Zhou said she had long been aware of the issue of climate change, having witnessed the series of sandstorms – caused by pollution – that hit the mainland in recent years, but had not felt strongly enough to take action.

However, one night, about a year ago, while channel-flipping to see what was on, she discovered a film that was to be her wake-up call – the award-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, made by former US vice-president Al Gore in 2006. Zhou said she was horrified to learn that the planet’s future is at stake.

“The film shows how global warming can result in serious problems such as natural disasters, disease epidemics, extinction of plants and animals and so on. It also warns that we only have another 50 years to act. Fifty years is a very short period of time, 30 years [of my life] have already gone by in a blink,” the 31-year-old actress said.

Since then, Zhou is committed to setting a good example to encourage others to live a simple lifestyle. She admits that in the past, she used to buy clothes that were very similar in style. Now she asks herself first: “Do I already have this dress? Yes. Do I have a lot of these dresses already? Yes. Do I still want to buy it? No. Then I walk away from the shop.”

She also takes her own chopsticks to a restaurant, uses her own mugs and carries her own toiletries when she checks into a hotel. But her landmark decision was to give up taking the baths that she adored.

“I met Jackie Chan during relief activity for victims of the Sichuan earthquake and he told me he had been carrying around with him the same bar of soap he had picked up from the first hotel he checked into and that it had travelled with him to at least five different countries. I was amazed.

“Now, when I hear or think of anything that can save the planet, I jot it down so I will remember it. I understand it’s very difficult to ask people to change certain habits overnight and I don’t oppose people taking baths but I will suggest that they fully utilise that bathtub of water, maybe to flush the toilet or to clean other things.”

Zhou has encouraged her film crew to ban the use of disposable chopsticks and rice boxes. “Every crew consists of at least 30 people and we have three meals a day on set. If each person uses three pairs of disposable chopsticks, that adds up to 90 pairs in total each day. A film project usually takes at least two months to complete. I am not good at maths but I understand that 90 pairs times 60 days is a very large number.”

In April, Zhou was appointed a national goodwill ambassador for the UN Development Programme to promote environmental sustainability. Other ambassadors include footballer Ronaldo, tennis star Maria Sharapova and Japanese actress Misako Kono.

Zhou receives the princely sum of US$1 a year from the UN but money is the least of her concerns. “If we can make the Earth a better place to live, that’s priceless,” she said.

Watch the Video To watch highlights of actress Zhou Xun talking about her concern for green issues, visit scmp.com/video

Canada’s Track And Field Team To Skip Opening Ceremonies

Jun 20th, 2008
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Canadian Press – June 20, 2008 at 3:57 PM EDT

TORONTO — When the Summer Games open Aug. 8 in Beijing, Canada’s track and field team will be in Singapore.

The Olympic schedule, along with concerns about pollution, traffic and access to training, will keep the Canadian track and field team out of the opening ceremonies and far away from Beijing until the last possible moment.

The Beijing track program doesn’t start until Aug. 15, a week after the opening. The Canadians will hold their pre-Olympic training camp in Singapore and then make the five-hour flight into Beijing — depending on the athlete and the event — a couple of days before they compete.

“Not just because of the pollution but because of the environment of training,” said Canadian head coach Les Gramantik. “There’s only one track that you train at (in Beijing), it’s a relatively long distance and the traffic is always crazy.

“It’s just a more peaceful in Singapore.”

The Canadians held a training camp in Singapore prior to last summer’s world championships in Osaka, Japan.

“We worked very well in Singapore last year, they were very supportive of us, it’s a very peaceful, clean, quiet environment,” Gramantik said.

The Australian track and field team is taking a similar approach, keeping its athletes in Hong Kong until three or four days before their scheduled events.

“As many sports have said, China presents difficulties for athletes going in and being there for a period of time,” Athletics Australia national performance manager Max Binnington told The Associated Press. “Anything more than five or six days and they inevitably end up with some sort of respiratory problem. So that was they many of the sports who don’t have to be in there early are choosing not to go in.

“And the outcome is that it’s almost impossible to go for the opening ceremony.”

Gramantik said, except for one or two questions raised at a meeting earlier this year, none of the Canadian athletes had problems with taking a pass on the opening ceremonies when informed of the plan.

“It’s really not an issue,” the coach said in a phone interview from Calgary. “Most of the people accept the fact that opening ceremonies is for the public and TV and for those athletes who have no hope to go anywhere, and we don’t carry those athletes anymore.

“Our athletes have more than just participation dreams, they want to be competitive.”

Beijing officials have said that they’re cutting down on pollution by halting construction and shutting down heavy industries after July 20.

Gramantik said he’s not overly concerned about the pollution problems they may face when they eventually arrive in the host city.

“We tend to create an opportunity to find excuses, ‘Well the air is bad,”‘ Gramantik said. “The air is going to be bad for everybody. Some obviously will be affected more than others, in some events, but it’s still going to be the Olympics, still going to be competing.

“But I think it’s going to be much better than people anticipate. I’m not really that concerned, but we’re going to spend as little time as possible in Beijing for each athlete.”

Foreign Experts To Help Fight Pollution

Jun 20th, 2008
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Source: CCTV.com – 06-20-2008 11:41

The countdown continues to the Beijing Olympics, and with fewer than 50 days to go, a group of foreign experts is now in China’s capital, on a mission to assess and improve air quality in Beijing.

The 12-person panel, including scientists from Hong Kong SAR, the United States and Italy, will monitor and forecast air quality in Beijing during the Olympics. They’ll also evaluate measures already taken to improve air quality.

The panel will be headed by Tang Xiaoyan from the Chinese Academy of Engineering.

Tang Xiaoyan from Chinese Academy of Engineering said, “We will conduct timely forecasts during the Olympic period. If the forecast indicates bad weather, we will take emergency measures to ensure the Games.”

Beijing has spent 140 billion yuan on environmental improvements over the last decade. It has shut down heavy-polluting factories, switched thousands of homes from oil to gas heating and imposed higher emission standards on vehicles.

Beijing plans to close more factories and force 19 heavy polluters to reduce emissions by 30 percent for two months starting July 20th. Six surrounding provinces also have emergency plans in place to reduce pollution even further if necessary.

North Pole May Be Ice-Free for First Time This Summer

Jun 20th, 2008
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Aalok Mehta aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen – National Geographic News – June 20, 2008

Arctic warming has become so dramatic that the North Pole may melt this summer, report scientists studying the effects of climate change in the field.

“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.

Firsthand observations and satellite images show that the immediate area around the geographic North Pole is now mostly annual, or first-year, ice—thin new ice that forms each year during the winter freeze.

Such ice is much more prone to melting during the summer months than perennial, or multiyear, ice, which is thick and dense ice that has lasted through multiple cycles of thawing and refreezing.

“I would say the ice in the vicinity of the North Pole is primed for melting, and an ice-free North Pole is a good possibility,” Sheldon Drobot, a climatologist at the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado, said by email.

The melt would be mostly symbolic—thicker ice, pushed against the Canadian continental shelf by weather and Earth’s rotation, would still survive the summer.

Recent models suggest that the Arctic won’t see its first completely ice-free summer until somewhere between 2013 and 2030.

But this summer’s forecast—and unusual early melting events all around the Arctic—serve as a dire warning of how quickly the polar regions are being affected by climate change.

Massive Melt

Scientists are particularly interested in the North and South Poles because they are expected to show the most dramatic effects of global warming.

Models predict that the regions will see temperature increases roughly three times as quickly as the rest of the globe because of an effect known as ice albedo feedback, which occurs when highly reflective ice gives way to dark water.

The water absorbs much more of the sun’s energy, increasing temperatures and causing further ice melting.

That has been reflected in the satellite record, which shows a gradual decrease in the extent of Arctic ice coverage over the years.

But the North Pole’s current plight stems from a much more startling reduction in sea ice that took place last summer. That extensive melt shattered all previous records and destroyed a significant portion of the Arctic’s multiyear ice.

“We lost 65 percent of the ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere all in one year,” Barber said. “So it was a whopping decrease. We didn’t even think it was possible for the system to lose so much ice all at once.”

Scientists say the record loss last year was due to a combination of warm ocean currents, fluke winds, and unusually sunny weather. (See: “Warming Oceans Contributed to Record Arctic Melt” [December 14, 2007].)

It’s unlikely that such a mixture of conditions will occur again, University of Colorado’s Drobot said.

But forecasts for this summer’s ice suggest the damage has already been done.

An unusually cold winter had raised hopes for a recovery, but much of the ice that formed froze later than usual, ending up so thin that it has already started to break up.

Scientists are hesitant, however, to offer a definitive prediction specifically about the North Pole, since that is dependent on weather conditions that are highly erratic.

“Nobody knows for sure,” Ron Lindsay, of the University of Washington, Seattle’s Polar Science Center, said by email.

“While much of the first-year ice melts in the summer, not all of it does, so we can’t be sure it will melt at the Pole,” he said. “We also don’t know what the winds will be like this summer, and they play an important role in determining just what parts of the Arctic Ocean are ice-free.”

But given the rapid changes now evident in the Arctic, the ultimate fate of the North Pole—in fact, all permanent ice in the Arctic—may be all but assured. Almost all models have the Arctic completely ice free in the summer by 2100.

“We jokingly call [perennial ice] an endangered species,” Barber said. “It’s on its way out. And so we’re studying it as quickly as we can, because there isn’t going to be any of it left pretty soon.”

Change of Tack HK Shipowners Are At Forefront Of A Battle For Tighter Emissions Curbs

Jun 19th, 2008
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Sarah Monks, SCMP – Jun 19, 2008

In an unusual reversal of roles, a global industry – shipping – is pressing international regulators for tighter controls over its toxic emissions. And Hong Kong owners have been in the vanguard, campaigning for earlier use of cleaner fuels by the world’s 60,000 ocean-going merchant ships.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) stunned itself and the world in April when its normally fractious members agreed to tighten emission caps by 2020 for sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and other pollutants. The revised caps, which the IMO is expected formally to adopt in October, would end shipping’s dependence on the dirtiest, cheapest fuel – residual oil, a tar-like refinery waste product.

“We are embarked on a very positive journey in the next 10 years that will see a massive decrease in toxic air emissions from ships,” said Arthur Bowring, managing director of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association (HKSOA), which has 160 members. “We have set ourselves an obligation. We now have to live up to that and meet that as an industry. If it hadn’t been for Hong Kong and Intertanko [the London- and Oslo-based International Association of Independent Tanker Owners] the IMO’s revisions would have been minor changes.”

The IMO’s intended new cap for sulfur content in fuel is 3.5 per cent (from the present 4.5 per cent) after January 1, 2012, falling steeply to 0.5 per cent from 2020. The limits in specified emission control areas would be 1 per cent in less than two years (from 1.5 per cent now) and fall to 0.1 per cent from 2015.

Thus, in a little over a decade, the world’s merchant ships are expected to have switched from the residual oil they have burned for nearly a century to a cleaner distillate, which is closer to truck diesel and jet fuel than it is to refinery waste.

“We dream of clean engine rooms and engineers in clean boiler suits,” said Mr Bowring. “We can’t wait to get to global distillate fuel grade so we can fill up our ships with a consistent quality fuel just like we fill up our cars.” He pointed to present difficulties for ships carrying multiple grades of fuel and aiming to meet different emissions regimes. Switching fuels at sea is a potentially dangerous procedure, with a risk of engines stalling in busy shipping lanes. Failure to use the right fuel could lead to costly sanctions such as ship detention.

Mr Bowring said the maritime industry, which accounts for about 90 per cent of world trade, realised some years ago that it must shift to a proactive mode in tackling public concerns about marine emissions.

Emissions have risen as seaborne trade has more than doubled in less than 20 years. Emissions have also been linked to deaths and heart diseases in places close to heavy marine traffic.

“You’ve got to be proactive. You can’t hide behind the regulations and the legislation and wait until you are forced,” said Mr Bowring. “And it’s very clear to us that our industry has to contribute to the reduction of pollution in the Pearl River Delta.”

According to the Environmental Protection Department’s air pollutant inventory, marine emissions are the second-largest source (5 per cent) of sulfur dioxide in Hong Kong, after electricity generation (89 per cent). They are the third-largest source (18 per cent) of NOx, after electricity generation (44 per cent) and road transport (23 per cent).

Mr Bowring said self-interest had been a powerful reason for the industry’s change of tack as it was better for the industry to develop its own regulations via the IMO, a UN agency, than be vulnerable to a patchwork of conflicting local regulations that would make sea transport less efficient.

In 2005, the HKSOA stepped on to the international stage with aggressive proposals to switch to cleaner fuel. Mr Bowring said it was a natural role for Hong Kong, as the city was the world’s fourth-largest centre for owning, operating and managing ships.

“Asia is not known for being outspoken. Hong Kong is willing to be outspoken. That’s the nature of Hong Kong,” said Mr Bowring. “It gives us great leverage and we’ve used it for a number of maritime issues in addition to marine emissions, such as bulk carrier safety standards and fatigue at sea. We’re willing to go out on a limb over issues and go on the world stage and be seen as a voice for Asia.”

The HKSOA lobbied unsuccessfully at the IMO for even tighter caps and a faster switch to global distillate that would eliminate the need for special emissions control areas but the world’s maritime administrators, including Hong Kong’s Marine Department, preferred “a compromise solution”, said its deputy director, Patrick Chun Ping-fai.

“Although I think people might appreciate their [HKSOA’s] argument … it appeared to us that their proposal would not be feasible or viable after taking into account various considerations, in particular the impact on the shipping community and also the ability of the oil refineries industry to provide a very-low-sulfur-content fuel to ships all over the world,” Mr Chun said.

The eventual April amendment to the IMO convention, known as MARPOL Annex VI, has a compromise clause to review the fuel supply situation in 2018, with an option to postpone the adoption of global distillate until 2025.

“We’ve dug a hole for ourselves here,” said Mr Bowring. “The burden is on us to find a solution with the refineries. They will have to switch from supplying about 380 million tonnes of residual oil to supplying the same amount of distillate. They will probably need new refineries and to upgrade existing refineries to create the capacity.”

He predicted that distillate would be twice as expensive as residual oil, though the impact on transport costs would be marginal as fuel was a relatively small factor in the end consumer price.

The IMO’s intended final sulfur-content levels were “a leap rather than a step”, said Douglas Rait of specialist maritime firm Lloyd’s Register. “It remains to be seen exactly how the fuel oil supply industry will react, what type and composition of fuel oils will be produced to meet the requirement, and what means will be necessary to assess their key characteristics on delivery,” added Mr Rait, global manager of the firm’s fuel-oil-bunker analysis and advisory service.

A spokeswoman for ExxonMobil Hong Kong, a major fuel supplier, said the company would be ready for the global changeover to 0.5 per cent distillate by 2020 and supplies would be ensured. A Shell Hong Kong spokeswoman said the IMO proposals provided flexibility for reaching the revised emission reduction levels.

Demand for cleaner marine fuel needs to rise sharply by 2020 to spur refineries to invest in its production, said Mr Bowring. A key HKSOA strategy was to press for an emissions control area for Hong Kong and Pearl River Delta waters, with cleaner fuel a requirement for entry.

“If we have a PRD emissions control area at 0.1 per cent it will instantly reduce the SOx and particulate matter from all ships going into one of the world’s largest shipping areas. It will also guarantee refineries a distillate market by ramping up demand,” he said.

Various port authorities would need to work together to create a regional emissions control area. But the Environmental Protection Department says they “have different priorities and considerations in terms of the implications that such a move may have on their port activities and businesses”.

Another hurdle to justifying an IMO-approved emissions control area is the prior need to show that equivalent efforts are being made to reduce pollution from factories and other land-based sources.

“The Guangdong authorities have already put a lot of effort into reducing air pollution,” said the Marine Department’s Mr Chun. “It will be very difficult to convince industry in the area to put in even more efforts to reduce air pollution if they want to make this a sulfur emissions control area.”

He noted, too, the challenges in convincing local fishermen, barge operators and related interest groups about the need for measures that imply higher fuel costs or require them to upgrade their engines. They had already been given an extended grace period to comply with IMO emissions caps that took effect in Hong Kong this month.

The Environmental Protection Department believes there are options other than an emissions control area for reducing pollution from ships. “For instance, we have set up an interdepartmental working group to examine the feasibility of local ferries using ultra-low-sulfur diesel, including conducting a trial,” it said in a statement. It was also in talks with its Guangdong counterparts.

For the co-founder and chief executive officer of policy think-tank Civic Exchange, Christine Loh Kung-wai, reducing marine and port emissions is “low hanging fruit” for the government. “You have the shipping companies and even the terminal operators ready to change, and some of the local craft operators also want to do something.

“The shipowners operate global businesses and are keenly aware of reforms taking place at other ports. They know their ships have to operate at higher environmental levels at ports in Europe and North America, and they can do the same in Hong Kong. They want to do it, which is driving them to ask for a level playing field so laggards do not benefit.”

Civic Exchange this week released a report, titled Green Harbours, which recommends reducing emissions from the marine and port sectors in Hong Kong and Shenzhen. It notes that governments and industry players in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta have taken steps such as encouraging the use of low-sulfur fuels, using electricity to power port machinery and reducing fuel consumption.

Ms Loh said the government had to play a “convening role” for the industry as a whole. “Something like requiring ships to slow down within Hong Kong waters is doable tomorrow – it will save fuel and reduce emissions,” she said.

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