Clear The Air News Blog Rotating Header Image

China

Outdated Smog Index To Be Overhauled

Shi Jiangtao in Beijing – SCMP – Updated on Mar 12, 2009

Mainland air-pollution standards are flawed, and major changes will be made to cover more pollutants and better monitor smog, a senior environment official has said.

Zhang Lijun, vice-minister of environmental protection, said a new air-pollution index would include fine particles and ground-level ozone, a gas produced in sunlight by mixed emissions from industry, vehicle exhaust and fuel vapours.

His announcement, at a briefing yesterday on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress, came just months after the Beijing Olympics, during which China’s air-pollution measurement system was widely questioned.

The mainland’s air-pollution standards measure only three main air pollutants: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and PM 10 – particulate matter with a median diameter of less than 10 microns.

“The current standards were adopted 10 years ago,” Mr Zhang said. “The absence of smog-related pollutants of fine particles and [ground-level] ozone has resulted in discrepancies between government statistics and public feelings.

“We often receive phone calls from the public, questioning our air-pollution index and wondering why we publish good air-quality figures even on smoggy days.”

Experts have long argued that the outdated standards, which have failed to reflect the stark reality of persistent smog affecting most cities in the country, should be partly blamed for the failure to tackle pollution and cut public health risks.

They linked soaring mortality rates due to widespread air pollution in the nation’s cities to the government’s ignorance of fine particulate matter and ground-level ozone, both believed to be linked to cancer, respiratory disease and other fatal illnesses.

Mr Zhang said air pollution was “very severe” across the country, with the number of smoggy days in the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing and Tianjin increasing rapidly.

“Some cities in the Pearl River Delta have recorded more than half a year’s worth of smoggy days.”

Green Drive Falls Short, Admits NPC Chairman

Kristine Kwok – SCMP – Updated on Mar 10, 2009

The mainland has fallen well short of its goals to cut emissions of major pollutants and the amount of energy consumed per unit of gross domestic product, a top leader has admitted.

“To a great extent, this showed that the pattern of China’s economic development has not been transformed fundamentally,” National People’s Congress chairman Wu Bangguo said yesterday.

“Serious problems such as mounting pressure on resources and the environment, increasing difficulty in expanding employment, and insufficient consumption still exist.”

The government’s prospects of nearing its targets are slim this year, given the challenges Beijing faces in ensuring economic growth amid the global financial crisis.

The government has said that the 4 trillion yuan (HK$4.5 trillion) stimulus package announced late last year would not undermine environmental protection efforts.

But the deputy minister of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Pan Yue, said last week the push for a “green GDP”, which would factor in the economic effects of environmental damage, had stopped.

Mr Wu said China had also failed to achieve desired progress in the services and the research and development sectors last year.

“We proposed that the State Council and relevant departments attach great importance to these problems,” he said.

Progress On Green Goals ‘Not Enough’

Shi Jiangtao in Beijing – Updated on Mar 06, 2009 – SCMP

Government advisers and green campaigners expressed dismay at the lack of progress in tackling the mainland’s worsening environment, despite Beijing’s renewed pledges to combat climate change and pollution problems.

Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday that severe pollution and high energy use remained big challenges despite the government’s costly campaign to repair the environment.

Speaking at the opening of the National People’s Congress, he vowed Beijing would “unswervingly” push the anti-pollution drive and address climate change.

But his renewed promises failed to cheer mainland environmentalists, who said the damage was a lot worse than Mr Wen has said and were unhappy with the government’s inability to reverse the situation.

They said Mr Wen had talked little about the grave situation in dealing with global warming, and the speech was short of pledges to do more to help make the international climate change campaign a success.

According to Mr Wen, Beijing reported progress in curbing the emission of major pollutants and promoting energy efficiency last year, the second time since 2006.

Energy use per unit of gross domestic product was cut by 4.59 per cent. Emissions of acid rain-causing sulfur dioxide and chemical oxygen demand (COD), two keys in measuring water pollution, fell by 5.95 per cent and 4.42 per cent respectively.

Beijing set ambitious targets three years ago as part of a five-year plan to cut energy consumption by 20 per cent and the aforementioned pollutants by 10 per cent by next year.

Referring to a major achievement in protecting the environment, Mr Wen said energy use per unit of GDP had dropped by 10 per cent over the past three years compared with the 2005 figure, while COD and sulfur dioxide emissions had been cut by 6.6 per cent and nearly 9 per cent.

“We will implement the … plan for addressing climate change and become better able to respond to it,” he said.

Zhang Weiqing, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, said the mainland’s overall environment had been deteriorating despite progress in some areas, which was far from enough to reverse the deterioration. “People are worried that it continues to get worse despite officials claiming otherwise,” he said yesterday. “Officials are still obsessed with development, but what’s the point … if the environment we live in is completely ruined?”

Environmentalists said the addiction to coal and policy priority on maintaining high growth would make it much more difficult to meet the pollution control targets on time.

Call For Regular Rain-Making To Relieve Drought-Hit Areas

SCMP – 5th March 2009

Artificial rainfall should become a routine practice in some drought-affected areas of the country, says NPC delegate Zong Qinghou. He said some areas in the north and northwest had endured many droughts, and occasional use of artificial rainfall could only ease that pressure. He said the rain-making efforts would not change the environment and would improve the quality of people’s lives. He proposed that the nation’s weather watchers create a team dedicated to inducing rain regularly, Chinanews.com.cn reports.

‘Green GDP’ Drive Grinds To A Halt

Boosting economy takes priority over calculating cost to the environment

Shi Jiangtao in Beijing – Updated on Mar 04, 2009 – SCMP

Beijing has stopped calculating the pollution cost of its economic growth as it goes all out to lift the economy, a top environmental official says.

The controversial “green GDP” project, which deducts the economic consequences of environmental damage from the original gross domestic product figures, has been put on hold since early 2007 because of resistance from local officials.

The move came as top leaders repeatedly pledged that an aggressive 4 trillion yuan (HK$4.5 trillion) stimulus package announced late last year would not take a toll on the battered environment.

Analysts said it was a major retrogression for Beijing’s ambitious campaign to cut energy use and pollution, which came after the government promised to combat climate change together with Washington during US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s recent visit.

Environmental vice-minister Pan Yue said on the sidelines of the opening session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference that “the green GDP project has been cancelled” and “will not be resumed [any time soon]”.

The project, aimed at providing a true picture of the mainland’s degradation by putting an environmental price tag on economic success, has been shrouded in controversy since its introduction in 2004.

It has been widely applauded by the public along with Beijing’s pledges to slash energy consumption by 20 per cent and curb pollution emissions by 10 per cent by the end of next year – but development-minded local authorities have scorned it.

An incomplete calculation of the environmental costs in 2004 showed that pollution caused more than 510 billion yuan in economic losses, or 3 per cent of GDP, according to the only green GDP report ever published, in 2006.

Mainland leaders who had lent their support from the outset of the research scheme were apparently embarrassed by the huge environmental price of the runaway economic development and decided to postpone the release of a second report.

President Hu Jintao shelved the green GDP calculations indefinitely ahead of the Communist Party’s congress in 2007, in an attempt to ensure a successful political reshuffle.

Despite widespread appeals to reinstate the project, analysts said environmentalism had been sidelined again amid the economic slowdown.

Many conservationists have expressed fears about the green impact of the stimulus package, with much of the spending focusing on energy-intensive and polluting industries. Mr Hu and Premier Wen Jiabao had promised several times since December that the mainland would not make the same mistakes of “pollution first and cleanup later”, which contributed to the economic miracle of the past three decades.

However, sources at the Ministry of Environmental Protection said energy and infrastructure projects totalling 800 billion yuan had been approved by the ministry in the past three months.

The ministry had been told not to hamper economic growth, they said.

Analysts said the cancellation of the green GDP project and the ministry’s relatively rapid approval process in recent months were a result of intense political pressure from the top leadership.

“There is a clear conflict between lifting the economy and upholding strict environmental standards,” a Beijing-based environmentalist said. “It is not surprising to see such a result, given the country’s poor environmental record.”

Although Beijing had announced progress in cutting key pollutants, Mr Pan said there was still a long way to go to reverse the worsening environmental degradation.

Beijing’s New Year Lunacy

Zhuang Pinghui, SCMP – Updated on Feb 20, 2009

After the capital’s disastrous celebrations, there is public support for a ban on fireworks. But not everyone agrees it will be effective.

Because of her job, Wang Qunying has not been able to have a relaxed Lunar New Year celebration for four years. As a security officer in the Zhonglouwan neighbourhood service centre, which includes Beijing’s historic Drum and Bell Towers, Ms Wang had to patrol the hutongs between 5pm and midnight to keep an eye out for potential fires.

“My heart was right up in my throat during the holidays,” she said. “Our neighbourhood is composed of only single-storey houses with dead weeds on the roofs. They could easily catch fire because of the fireworks.”

With fire extinguishers at hand, she was stationed in the open space between the two towers on Lunar New Year’s Eve where a huge crowd, many of them foreigners, celebrated by setting off fireworks.

One foreigner fired a rocket that landed on a roof and caused a fire, and another set off a floating lantern that ignited a tree. Neither incident caused injury or financial loss.

But that was not the case with the inferno that engulfed the Mandarin Oriental building at the new CCTV complex, killing a firefighter, almost destroying the hotel and setting off a debate about whether the mainland authorities should reimpose a ban on fireworks.

The authorities said the fire, which burned for nearly six hours, was caused by CCTV illegally setting off fireworks so powerful they required municipal government approval. But even to Ms Wang, whose job is fire safety, it’s an unnecessary debate.

“Without fireworks, Lunar New Year would never be the same. You can’t deprive people of their right to celebrate the occasion in its traditional way. We should come up with other methods to reduce the danger,” she said. Ms Wang said she supported having organised fireworks shows in open spaces so that the public could still have the flavour of traditional celebrations while pollution, noise and danger could be kept at acceptable levels.

There are signs that this is a minority view, however. With the images of raging flames and showers of red ashes still fresh in the minds of many, nearly 70 per cent of people in an online survey said fireworks should be banned because of the noise and danger.

According to official figures, there were 75 fires with 46 people injured in Beijing on Lunar New Year’s Eve because of fireworks. Many also complained about the lingering smell and heavy smog after the fireworks frenzy of the Lantern Festival – the last day of the Lunar New Year.

The city’s environment watchdog confirmed that the air pollution index, which measures major pollutants, hit 307 in the 24 hours to noon on February 10. That level equates to “very polluted” by national standards and was the worst for the capital since June.

The Beijing People’s Congress has listed a study of whether to change the Beijing Fireworks and Firecrackers Safety Management Regulation in this year’s work plan, prompting talk of a ban being reintroduced.

For 13 years, the city banned fireworks but the prohibition was lifted for the Lunar New Year holidays in 2006 after public consultation. More than 200 cities imposed the ban in the 1990s but, by 2005, at least 106 cities, including Shanghai and Hangzhou, had relaxed it.

But sociologists, people in the fireworks industry and even security officers such as Ms Wang said a ban would not solve the problem, and could make it worse.

“It’s like giving up eating because you might choke,” said Zhang Hui, president of the Tourism Development Research Institute under Beijing International Studies University.

“Lighting fireworks is a traditional celebration that brings special family joy. The government should strengthen inspections to ensure supplies are of good quality and people follow safety rules to fire them. The problem is not the fireworks.”

Wu Youcheng, Beijing sales manager of Dou Dou Fireworks, one of the three official fireworks distributors in the capital, agreed that a blanket ban was no solution.

“From past years’ experience, people would still set off fireworks even when there was a ban and they would try to sneak fireworks in from unofficial channels, raising the risk of them being substandard and causing accidents. The consequences [of a ban] would be much worse than lifting the ban and ensuring the fireworks on the market are of good quality,” he said.

Even when the city government urged residents to buy fireworks through official channels – temporary shops set up in designated areas and selling products from the three official distributors – many still drove to counties in Hebei to buy supplies. Across the border, fireworks stands were set up on roadsides near highways and prices were at least one-third below those in Beijing.

The demand for fireworks has been rising steadily over the years, indicating greater general enthusiasm for the pyrotechnics, said Wu Liyu, general manager of Beijing Fireworks, another of the three official distributors and the official supplier to national ceremonies such as the Olympics opening and closing ceremonies.

The company had seen sales soar from 400,000 boxes in 2006 to 500,000 boxes this year, well above the 50,000 or so it sold during the years of the ban. A box contains around 30kg of fireworks.

Residents have also been more willing to pay high prices, in some cases thousands of yuan for a box of fireworks with special effects such as the “smiling face” and “big footprint” made popular during the Beijing Games.

“Apparently, residents have the money and enthusiasm for fireworks celebrations. A complete ban would cause social resentment,” Wu Liyu said.

It would also be a catastrophic blow to the fireworks companies and some sectors of the industry, which was vital to the economy of some cities, he added.

Industry insiders said 80 per cent of fireworks were manufactured in Liuyang and Liling in Hunan province, and Pingxiang, Waizai and Shangli in Jiangxi, and were economic mainstays in those areas.

Both executives said it would be more sensible and practical to solve the problem by stricter inspection of the industry and better education of consumers. They said there were already strict regulations on the production, storage, transport and use of fireworks, and the problems were caused by people not respecting them.

Hundreds of registered factories manufacture or process fireworks in Hunan, in addition to the many small-scale workshops that employ manual labourers and often cause deadly accidents – 22 people died in four separate factory accidents across the country last month.

Even in big operations such as Dou Dou’s, workers still need to mix and fill powder by hand – the most dangerous link in the production chain. Big companies have established inspection procedures or separate production into stages, to reduce risk, but these precautions are seldom seen in small workshops.

Beijing, with its abundance of sites of historical and political importance, has strict regulations on fireworks but they are poorly enforced, the executives said.

“You are allowed to put no more than 20 grams of powder in a cylinder up to 40mm in diameter and if the firework creates a bloom in the sky, it should be between 25 metres and 70 metres high,” Wu Liyu said. “But from my observation, many fireworks must be outside the regulations or they could not produce such magnificent effects.”

Beijing also forbids all fireworks within 100 metres of important sites such as historic buildings, kindergartens, nursing homes, hospitals and roads. But the mountains of ash and rubbish on Beijing’s streets were clear evidence that these rules were flouted.

As well, fireworks can only be used during certain hours. Nevertheless, explosions rocked the capital late into the night. “I think it’s better to control the damage from the consumers’ end,” Wu Liyu said.

“Say a family budgets to spend 500 yuan on fireworks, they can start by buying them through official channels, buying less dangerous ones if they are for children and strictly following the regulations.”

He said the most effective way was to educate people about the right way to set off fireworks, to prevent tragic consequences. It would also save on the costs of monitoring the annual extravaganza. More than 750,000 people, including police, city inspectors, neighbourhood service officers such as Ms Wang and volunteers, were deployed during the first six days of the holidays.

Wu Youcheng said there should also be greater awareness of environmentally friendly fireworks, which have a less overpowering powder smell and no noise.

“There are many stubborn habits that among Chinese have been corrected, such as spitting. I believe recklessly setting off fireworks will also be corrected, given time,” he said.

Nation’s First Emissions Exchange Likely To Start Trading By End Of Year

Reuters in Beijing, Updated on Feb 20, 2009

The nation’s first emissions exchange is expected to begin trading by the end of this year as it works out trading procedures and recruits more member firms, a senior exchange executive said yesterday.

The Tianjin Climate Exchange was established in September, but acceptance has been slow among the small mainland companies that the exchange is trying to attract.

“We hope the exchange will start trading sulfur dioxide, COD [chemical oxygen demand] and energy intensity credits by the end of this year,” exchange assistant chairman Jeff Huang said.

The exchange was working on operational details with the central government and potential member companies before trading could kick off, Mr Huang added.

Beijing has long vowed to save energy and reduce emissions, setting a goal to reduce all emissions by 10 per cent from 2006 to 2010.

But to initiate active trading on the country’s only emissions exchange, Mr Huang said the mainland needed to change the way it allocated emissions credits.

Mr Huang is also vice-president of the Chicago Climate Exchange, which owns 25 per cent of the Tianjin exchange. An asset management unit of China’s top oil and gas firm, China National Petroleum, owns more than 50 per cent of the venture and Tianjin Property Rights Exchange owns the rest.

Emissions credits on the mainland are allocated by the central government to the provinces, which often ignore environmental regulations to focus on economic growth, which produces tax revenue.

Mr Huang said Beijing should hand out emissions credits to companies directly, bypassing local officials and, more importantly, giving firms the incentives to bring emission credits to market.

“Polluters can now cash in on their emissions credits at the exchange,” he said.

The Chicago exchange, run by Britain’s Climate Exchange, is a voluntary market that aims to reduce emissions of gases such as carbon dioxide that scientists blame for global warming.

The Tianjin exchange has about 20 member companies, which include the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Delong Steel, a unit of Singapore-listed Delong Holdings.

The Chicago exchange had 13 member firms when it began trading in 2003 and now hosts more than 400 members. Mr Huang declined to forecast future trading levels at the new exchange, pointing instead to the Chicago exchange’s history, where total trading volume surged to 110 million tonnes last year from only 2.2 million tonnes in 2003, he said.

The Tianjin exchange’s success could hinge on Beijing’s official support for environmental goals, something the Chicago exchange does not enjoy as the US is still not a party to the Kyoto Protocol.

“The current overall conditions in China for trading emissions are much better than in the United States when the Chicago exchange started up,” Mr Huang said.

Hillary Clinton’s Visit Unlikely To Yield Breakthrough Over Global Warming, Say Analysts

Shi Jiangtao in Beijing, SCMP – Updated on Feb 20, 2009

As US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton arrives in Beijing today, the global media will watch closely to see if Washington’s new-found interest in climate change will result in closer ties between the world’s two biggest emitters of greenhouse gases.

There has been much talk in the US about setting aside differences over global warming responsibilities and working together towards a solution ahead of a key December climate meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Climate change, one of the most talked about but least acted upon world issues, is expected to be high on Mrs Clinton’s agenda during her first official trip as secretary of state.

It is even described by US officials as a new focal point in Sino-US ties, which have often been marked by political and economic rifts.

China has responded with a cautious welcome, calling on the US and other developed countries to “take the lead in cutting emissions, and providing funds and technical help”.

Despite positive, yet vague diplomatic rhetoric, mainland experts said neither side had offered much to end the impasse in the international climate talks and ignite change.

Renmin University professor Zou Ji said Mrs Clinton’s visit was just the first step towards further communication, and the Beijing talks were unlikely to yield a substantial outcome.

“It will prepare the way for the G20 summit in London in early April, which will see the first meeting between President Hu Jintao and [US President Barack] Obama,” Professor Zou said.

He said recent academic reports in the US suggested closer co-operation between the world’s two biggest polluters but failed to present concrete measures.

“Compared with the much more sophisticated economic co-operation such as the strategic economic dialogue mechanism between the two countries, climate co-operation has just begun,” he said.

Tsinghua University climate expert Liu Bin said the recent US remarks reflected the new American administration’s diplomatic strategy of playing the climate card to put China at a disadvantage ahead of the Copenhagen talks.

“Mounting international pressure has already pushed the US to the brink of accepting its responsibility for climate change, which is long overdue. It wants to use China as a scapegoat,” Ms Liu said.

The US has been fiercely criticised for its refusal to ratify the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which subjected industrialised countries to mandatory carbon emissions caps and was supposed to help developing countries adapt to rising temperatures.

Washington has long argued that the existing climate pact, which exempted large developing countries such as China, Brazil and India from emission reduction targets, was unfair and harmful to its economy.

Representatives from nearly 200 countries will meet in the Danish capital to agree on a successor climate treaty to Kyoto, which expires in 2012.

However, talks in recent years have reached a stalemate, with developed and developing countries wrangling over key issues such as carbon targets, technology transfer and funding for adaptation in poor countries.

Lin Erda, a veteran expert from the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences said developed countries should take much of the blame for the “we will only take on commitments if they do” stalemate.

Although developed countries are obliged to provide finance and technology to developing countries under the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, a parent pact of Kyoto, little funding has been made available and hardly any technology has been transferred.

Experts agreed that funding shortages, which have plagued international co-operation for years and have been exacerbated by the unfolding financial crisis, would further delay bilateral collaboration.

“The previous US administrations, including those of George W. Bush and his predecessor Bill Clinton, offered little funding support for the international effort to address climate change. I don’t see any possibility for a turnaround in US policy in the near future given the current economic situation in the US,” Ms Liu said.

The deadlock on technology transfer also proved difficult to break.

Ms Liu said developed countries and businesses were more concerned about losing their competitive edge than the disastrous effects of global warming.

“There has been much talk about the China threat. Why would industrialised countries be willing to offer China the latest climate-friendly technologies?” she said.

Ms Liu said the US and China were more likely to join hands in fields such as research on clean coal and renewable energy, and the development of electric cars.

Mainland experts said the extent of each country’s commitment to tackling climate change should be decided by the level of economic development, and should not lower the living standards of ordinary citizens.

Although China was rumoured to have overtaken the US as the world’s top carbon emitter, it was developed countries, including the US, that had contributed the most to global warming historically, Professor Lin said.

“The stalemate in fund-raising and technology transfer has already prompted questions about whether developed countries intended to contain China and other developing countries,” he said.

His views were supported by other mainland experts, who pointed out that per capita carbon emissions for China’s 1.3 billion people were a fraction of that of rich countries.

Professor Zou said China did not have much room for compromise in Copenhagen. “China will eventually accept the limits, but it is definitely not now or in 10 years. I think it will probably happen in 20 years when China’s urbanisation is basically complete and most people lead decent lives in their houses with water and power supplies,” he said.

Jin Canrong, a Renmin University Sino-US affairs specialist, said Washington’s new-found willingness to address climate issues was largely a result of pledges Mr Obama made during his election campaign.

Although both sides expressed intentions to improve co-operation, Professor Jin agreed that it was difficult to see how far the two countries were willing to go.

But he agreed that compared with a host of sensitive political, economic and financial issues, climate change was a good choice for both countries to foster closer ties.

Scorched Earth – The Signs Of Accelerating Man-made Global Warming Are All Around The Asia-Pacific Region

Michael Richardson, SCMP – Updated on Feb 18, 2009

The devastating bush fires in Australia, severe drought in China and the spread of haze pollution in Indonesia in recent days are linked by a common underlying trend – temperature rise in the Asia-Pacific region and other parts of the world. They are an unwelcome reminder to policymakers preoccupied with the global financial and economic crisis that climate change is striking now and will strike much harder in future if not tackled effectively by the international community. Australians, who live in the driest inhabited continent on the planet, are counting the cost of the extreme heat and prolonged lack of rain that set the scene for the raging fires in the southeast state of Victoria earlier this month. The final death toll is expected to rise to about 300 as more bodies are discovered. Damage to property and livestock, and the cost of treating the injured, could exceed A$2 billion (HK$10.1 billion).

In China, drought has spread to 12 provinces across central and northern China that produce the bulk of the country’s wheat, threatening the staple winter crop. The China Meteorological Administration said on February 5 that some parts of the country were experiencing the worst drought and highest average temperatures in 30-50 years.

Last week, thick haze from forest fires blanketed large areas of Indonesia’s Riau province as farmers and plantations took advantage of dry conditions to burn forest and clear land cheaply. This practice, although illegal, has proved difficult to stop. It causes acrid smoke to drift over neighbouring countries when the wind blows in their direction.

No one is suggesting that above-average temperatures alone are responsible for these events. The Australian fires were fanned by wild winds and, in some cases, police suspect arson. However, temperature rise is an important factor. It increases susceptibility to disaster, whether caused by nature or people. On January 5, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that 2008 was the 14th-warmest since records began in 1910 and 0.41 degrees Celsius above the 1961-1990 average. It noted that Australia had warmed by about 0.9 degrees over the past century.

The panel of international scientists advising the UN on climate change warned in its most recent report two years ago that fires in Australia were “virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency” because of steadily warming temperatures in the next few decades.

The same panel, in its summary for policymakers around the world, found that the “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level”, caused when oceans expand as they warm. Melting glaciers and polar ice sheets adds to their volume.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), set up in 1988 to provide independent advice to the UN, gave examples of projected regional impacts on Asia. It said that, by the 2050s, freshwater availability in Central, South, East and Southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins, would decrease. Heavily populated coastal areas in South, East and Southeast Asia would be at greatest risk due to rising sea levels while mega-delta regions would also be subjected to increased flooding from rivers fed from melting glaciers on China’s Qinghai-Tibet plateau and the Himalayas. The panel also said that health risks associated with floods and droughts were expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia.

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, which helped set up the IPCC, the global combined sea-surface and land-surface air temperature for last year is estimated to be 0.31 degrees above the 1961-1990 annual average of 14 degrees. This makes 2008 the 10th-warmest since 1850. It is now 23 years since the world has had a cooler-than-average year. The warmest year on record was 1998.

Vast swathes of Indonesia’s forest and underlying peat bogs dried out and burned in 1997 and 1998, casting a pall of toxic haze over much of Southeast Asia.

The IPCC says that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activity, mainly from burning fossil fuels and deforestation, are blanketing the planet, making it warmer. The scientists concluded that the average global temperature would increase by between 1.1 degrees and 6.4 degrees by the end of the century, depending on the level of emissions over coming decades.

Last week, the Norwegian Polar Institute reported that atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, were hitting new highs. Levels rose to 392 parts per million, a rise of 2.3 ppm from a year earlier, up by a third since the 19th-century Industrial Revolution. The Pew Centre on Global Climate Change in the US says that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are now at their highest in at least 800,000 years. Once carbon dioxide enters the atmosphere, it stays there for a long time. The economic slump may cut emissions for the time being, but this will have little, if any, impact on atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.

We are seeing, in Australia’s bush fires and China’s drought, the grim face of the future in the Asia-Pacific region as the temperature rises. Curbing global warming emissions and adapting to climate change will be costly. But failing to do so will be even more expensive and painful.

Michael Richardson is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. mriht@pacific.net.sg

China Study Blames Indoor Burning For Lung Ailment

Wed Feb 18, 2009 6:00pm EST

HONG KONG, Feb 19 (Reuters) – A study of more than 20,000 people in China has shown that exposure to burning solid fuel indoors for heat and cooking may cause the lung ailment known as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

The finding, published in the European Respiratory Journal, is significant because COPD has long been associated with smoking and very little research has been done to find out why non-smokers also suffer from the disease.

COPD includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema.

Emphysema is the loss of elasticity of lung tissues, resulting in the collapse of small airways which gives rise to shortness of breath and hyperventilation.

The study covered 20,245 people over 40 years of age in seven Chinese cities and provinces who were interviewed about their smoking habits, family health history and exposure to smoke from solid fuels, such as wood, coal, grass and dung.

Among the participants, 12,471 were non-smokers and 5.2 percent of them were diagnosed as suffering from COPD, wrote the researchers, led by Pixin Ran at the State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Disease in China’s southern Guangzhou city.

The prevalence of COPD among non-smokers varies widely from country to country: 6 percent in Mexico City, 9 percent in the United States and 16 percent in Santiago de Chile.

These statistics suggest the illness may be linked to other causes such as differences in lifestyle, behaviour and exposure to various toxic substances.

After adjusting for other possible causes, including passive smoking, the Chinese researchers found that exposure to various types of smoke in the home, such as that produced by burning coal and biomass, was the leading cause of COPD in non-smokers.

Around 73 percent had been exposed for at least a year to burning fuel indoors for the purpose of heating or cooking.

In four out of 10 cases, kitchen ventilation was poor and both men and women were harmed, they added.

Nearly four-fifths of the non-smokers, or 78 percent, were also found to have lived with tobacco fumes.

It is well known that children of smoking parents are more likely to suffer from respiratory disease as adults and the researchers said the problem will be more acute in China, where nearly 40 percent of adults smoke.

“Our results can probably be applied to other developing countries, such as India and Nepal, which have a similar indoor pollution problem”, wrote the researchers.

They hoped a substantial number of COPD cases could be avoided through health education, better ventilation in kitchens and getting people to quit smoking. (Reporting by Tan Ee Lyn, editing by Tim Pearce)