Third Runway

Holding times over Chek Lap Kok are getting longer. But a third runway may not solve the problem

Less than a mile out from the north runway at Chek Lap Kok on March 5, strong and squally winds start to rattle Hong Kong Airlines flight 253 from Taipei.

With the sea only 150 metres below, the landing gear deployed and touchdown near, the aircraft’s engines power up, sending the plane skyward. The landing is aborted.

The pilot calmly tells passengers: “We do not have the extra fuel to re-route a second approach for landing into Hong Kong. And as such, I have decided, for our safety, we will be diverting to Shenzhen for refuelling.”

The flight was one of a dozen jets diverted that day due to a phenomenon known as wind shear. Scientists at the Observatory said the event was the worst to hit the airport since records began in 2011. Lantau is notorious for the phenomenon of rapid changes in windspeed and direction near the ground.

Passengers on Flight 253 reported that the pilot said the winds “were very, very strong”, and as such it “wasn’t safe” to make the landing.

While the weather situation was unusual, the events of March 5 also reflect an everyday problem – namely the congested skies above Chek Lap Kok.

And it is a problem that needs a solution after the Executive Council approved the Airport Authority’s HK$141.5 billion plan for a third runway that will expand the airport’s capacity.

Flight 253 was a case in point. Like other flights, it would have entered a holding pattern, a kind of highway in the skies where planes are kept apart, before the aircraft are manoeuvred, one by one, into the landing queue.

But Flight 253 was in a holding queue of 12 planes. By the time it attempted to land, it lacked the 40 minutes of extra fuel it required to “go around” and attempt another landing in Hong Kong without falling foul of the rules on minimum fuel levels. The Civil Aviation Department said the minimum fuel levels were set based on UN aviation safety rules.

Landing with good weather in Shenzhen, the aircraft and passengers waited on the tarmac for four hours before the plane was refuelled and returned to Hong Kong.

The other 11 planes also diverted to Shenzhen and Macau, while 17 landed safely at Chek Lap Kok at the second attempt.

The longer holding times – which can now stretch up to 15 minutes, according to pilots’ unions – reflect how busy Chek Lap Kok is getting.

For most of the day, the airport handles its maximum 65 flights per hour – a figure that increases to 67 per hour from tomorrow and 68 from October, the highest it can ever go with only two runways.

With 391,000 flights handled last year, the maximum capacity under a two-runway configuration, 420,000 arrivals and departures per year, is not far away.

The problem is made worse by a lack of cooperation over airspace in the Pearl River Delta, which leaves aircraft from Hong Kong unable to enter the mainland until they reach a minimum height of 4,785 metres.

Last week Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying said the central government would help to resolve airspace integration issues with Hong Kong and Macau by 2020, which could see an integration of airspace. But details of how such integration will work remain sketchy.

Airport Authority chief executive Fred Lam Tin-fuk said aviation officials and their mainland counterparts had conducted a simulation study based on a 2007 directional plan, which he said was “technically feasible”. But he shared no further details.

Pilot unions warn that unless the airspace question is resolved, more diversions are likely.

The Hong Kong Airline Pilots Association says the airport and airspace saturation problem is “further complicated” by the need to accommodate unplanned go-arounds like those on March 5.

“These additional delays can compromise planned arrival fuel [predictions] and at some point inbound aircraft will make the call whether to continue holding or to divert,” said Darryl Soligo, president of the association, which represents pilots at Cathay Pacific, Dragonair, Hong Kong Airlines and Hong Kong Express.

He said saturation in the aviation system left little capacity to deal with even the occasional wrinkle. But he warned that “pouring pavement in Hong Kong by way of a third runway is not a solution in itself”.

Airspace rationalisation is an “equally important component” and if airspace negotiations are not successful, then the Airport Authority will lose the support of a key ally – pilots.

Congestion means pilots might have to divert to airports further afield even before attempting to land at Chek Lap Kok, experts say.

Brian Legge, a wind shear expert and member of the association’s technical and safety committee, said: “Without resolving the air traffic services problems first, the result will likely be more ground delays, increased aircraft holding, and a risk of overloading air traffic controllers during periods of high volume coupled with weather or operational related challenges.”

According to the union, Cathay Pacific has acknowledged in recent years that its short-haul regional flights needed extra fuel to accommodate the time spent holding.

The number of diversions has steadily risen since 2000 – when 68 flights had to abort landing attempts.

Last year 335 aircraft had to abort landings – the second highest figure ever recorded at the airport. Some 233 were caused by weather. The rest were classified as doing so for operational reasons.

Management sources at Hong Kong Airlines said overcrowding had become “challenging” to manage. But its spokesman expressed support for a third runway, saying: “We are confident that the [Airport] Authority will make the most adequate arrangement after taking different parties’ views into consideration.”

But while the third runway is touted as the only way to increase capacity, problems do remain,

Besides airspace management, the Civil Aviation Department’s consultant on third runway matters, Britain’s National Air Traffic Service, has identified problems with escape routes – the routes that planes take after aborting landings.

And concerns remain about the cost of the runway, after a series of massive public works projects bust their budgets amid long delays. Most notoriously, the high-speed railway to Guangzhou has been pushed back at least two years to 2017, with costs rising to at least HK$71.5 billion from HK$65 billion.

One key factor in the delays and cost overruns has been a shortage of construction workers, with the industry warning it will be short of 10,000 workers within four years. The shortage and the demand from elsewhere as the government looks to stimulate public and private house building have cast doubts on the target of having the runway in place by 2023.

There is also environmental concern as the runway needs reclamation on a massive scale, further impingeing on the habitat of the endangered Chinese white dolphin.

The funding plan – under which the Airport Authority will pay for the work without seeking extra cash from the government – is also controversial. Some lawmakers are fuming because they will not get to scrutinise the budget plans, despite the fact that the authority is government owned and will stop paying dividends to the public purse.

And part of the funding will have to come from airport users including passengers, who will pay a HK$180 per person departure fee.

Cathay Pacific and Dragonair have expressed strong support for the third runway, but have cried foul over the funding arrangement, under which they would pay higher landing and parking fees.

March 5

Air New Zealand
5.50am, NZ87 from Auckland, two landing attempts before diverting to Macau

Cathay Pacific
6.10am, CX829 from Toronto, aborted landing once and diverted to Shenzhen
* Cathay flights from Delhi, Taipei and Nagoya landed in Hong Kong on second attempt

China Southern Airlines
9.47am, CZ311 from Jieyang , diverted back to Jieyang

Dragonair
5.55am, KA932 from Manila, performed two unsuccessful landing attempts before diverting to Macau
10.07am, KA857 from Shanghai, aborted landing and diverted to Shenzhen
* Jets from Yangon, Taichung, Beijing, Zhengzhou and Shanghai aborted landings before landing in Hong Kong

Hong Kong Airlines
6am, HX774 from Bangkok, aborted landing once and diverted to Macau
6.15am, HX708 from Denpasar (Bali), aborted landing once and diverted to Macau
7.21am, HX9269 from Taipei, aborted landing once and diverted to Macau
9.53am, HX453 from Chengdu , aborted landing once and diverted to Shenzhen
2.15pm, HX253 from Taipei, aborted landing once and diverted to Shenzhen
*Three more HK Airlines jets from Macau, Taipei and Naha, Okinawa aborted landings before landing in Hong Kong

Tiger Airways
9.52am, TR2062 from Singapore, aborted landing and diverted to Shenzhen
12.03pm, TR2052 from Singapore, performed two unsuccessful landing attempts before diverting to Shenzhen

* Taiwan’s China Airlines had two go-arounds. United Airlines, Russia’s S7 Airlines, Philippine Airlines and Jetstar Asia planes aborted landings before landing in Hong Kong

Source: Flightradar24

Source URL (modified on Mar 29th 2015, 9:59am): http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1749835/skys-near-limit-above-chek-lap-kok

Albert Cheng says there is no guarantee the mainland will open up its airspace to ensure the success of Hong Kong’s airport expansion

The Executive Council’s hasty decision last week to approve the third runway has triggered a public outcry. Secretary for Housing and Transport Anthony Cheung Bing-leung has scrambled to justify this most expensive infrastructure project in the history of Hong Kong. However, his limited explanations have led to even more doubts.

The most pertinent questions revolve around the city’s airspace entitlements. Flights leaving and approaching Chek Lap Kok are barred from crossing into the airspace immediately north of the border. This has severely restricted the number of planes the airport can handle.

Cheung said Macau and the mainland had signed an agreement with Hong Kong to resolve the issues of congested airspace in the region up to 2020. But he refused to disclose details of the agreement, citing national security.

This is ridiculous. Any consensus among the parties needs to be made known to the airliners and international aviation bodies before they can be put into practice. If Hong Kong was promised any concessions, the industry would need to be informed well beforehand, to prepare for the changes.

None of the third parties have been notified. That can only mean the 2007 plan has nothing concrete for Hong Kong. Cheung’s secretive approach has only added to speculation that the agreement contains, at best, vague principles.

Besides, whatever was written into the agreement is only meant to be valid until 2020, well before the third runway becomes operational in the mid-2020s.

There is nothing in black and white that guarantees Hong Kong would be given the necessary air paths to ensure the success of the third runway.

Airport Authority chief executive Fred Lam Tin-fuk said people should trust the Hong Kong and central governments to solve the problem. He is obviously unaware of the latest findings of the Hong Kong University’s public opinion programme released this week. Only 37 per cent of the people asked said they trusted the SAR government, while only 33 per cent said they trusted Beijing. Trust is in short supply when it comes to how Hong Kong people see their political masters.

Lam is entrusted with overseeing the statutory body responsible for the operation and development of the airport. Taxpayers would have wanted a more prudent chief executive to first resolve the airspace issue before rushing into a bet of HK$142 billion.

Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying made an even more irrational plea: the public should first support the project, and the technical problems could be solved later, he said. His administration does not have a track record of getting the job done to make his call credible.

Leung’s remarks are tantamount to admitting that there is no agreement on the third runway. If mainland bureaucrats are so eager to enhance the facility, they would have done so by now.

Who has been standing in the way? It may have been the Shenzhen airport operator, the Guangdong provincial authority, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, the People’s Liberal Army, or other interests. Their agendas are very different from ours. Even if we agreed to take a blind leap of faith with Leung, Hong Kong would still be in a weak negotiating position.

Once construction has started on the runway, the Airport Authority will have passed the point of no return. The Chinese interests are well aware of this.

If airspace problems remain unresolved, the project would become a white elephant and the Airport Authority would face deepening financial liability. Our mainland competitors would be in a good position to demand that Hong Kong give up some of its valuable civil aviation rights in return for access to airspace.

None of our neighbouring Chinese cities can claim to be international aviation hubs. It would be a different story if they could lay claim to part of our rights for bilateral negotiations with other countries. That would spell the end of Hong Kong as a leader in aviation.

It is enshrined in the Basic Law that the Hong Kong government should “take measures for the maintenance of the status of Hong Kong as a centre of international and regional aviation”. Yet, in reality, neither the government nor the Airport Authority has any realistic plan to keep Hong Kong ahead of its neighbours.

Instead of relying on an uncertain third runway a decade later, we should take immediate steps. Any stipulations in the 2007 agreement that benefit Hong Kong should be translated into action without delay.

Failing that, we should at least begin to look at other options, such as levelling the hilltop close to Chek Lap Kok, to enable more frequent take-offs. Only such measures can make us less reliant on the mainland and thus in a better position to negotiate.

Albert Cheng King-hon is a political commentator. taipan@albertcheng.hk [1]

Source URL (modified on Mar 26th 2015, 2:08pm): http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1747735/hong-kong-must-not-build-third-runway-based-vague-airspace

Details of deal with mainland authorities to allow for proposed third runway at ChekLap Lok contains ‘sensitive’ information

The government has refused to disclose details of an agreement with mainland authorities on airspace in the Pearl River Delta, as the controversy into granting a third runway at Chek Lap Kok continues to escalate.

Transport Secretary Anthony Cheung Bing-leung said the information was being kept confidential because of its “sensitive” details.

“The plan itself set forth various objectives, targets and measures to be implemented until the year 2020,” Cheung said. “The document contains a lot of commercial and strategic sensitivities, so we don’t think it is right for us to just publish the plan.”

Critics of the planned construction of a third runway at Chek Lap Kok have said airspace in the region is already too congested to accommodate additional flights.

They have urged the government to reveal more about the so-called ‘2007 plan’, which was agreed by aviation officials in Hong Kong, the mainland and Macau after more than a decade of talks aimed at resolving airspace problems.

Former Observatory chief Lam Chiu-ying said no one was asking to see the whole agreement.

“What we want to see is the agreed plan showing the airspace allocation to the various parties and the new pattern of flight routes,” said Lam.

He said the specifics should be public information as major airspace changes had to be submitted to the UN’s aviation regulator, as well as pilots and air traffic controllers.

Albert Lam Kwong-yu, the predecessor to incumbent Norman Lo Shung-man as the Civil Aviation Department chief, hinted that he supported Cheung’s decision.

“I am not the best judge to say whether this information is appropriate to disclose or not. Only the one who says so is the best judge,” Lam said.

Another ex-head of the aviation regulator, Peter Lok Kung-nam maintained his opposition to the third runway.

This comes after Cheung said Lok had performed a U-turn and backed the airport expansion. “Of course I support a third runway … I don’t think it should be at Chek Lap Kok,” Lok said, saying that Cheung had put “words in my mouth”.

The airport expansion has been dogged by a series of issues, from soaring construction costs – previously set at HK$80 billion and now rising to HK$141.5 billion in four years.

The plan has also been overshadowed by questions over how the city can fully utilise a new runway with a lack of agreement with Beijing over the use of mainland airspace.

Meanwhile, at a seminar organised by pressure group Airport People’s Watch, Guangzhou Civil Aviation College associate professor Qi Qi called for further integration and coordination of aviation around the Pearl River Delta. “If we need to expand [the airspace], a revolutionary innovation is needed for the air traffic management technology,” said Qi.

But the burgeoning expansion of Guangzhou, which will eventually have five runways – is faltering and Qi revealed Guangzhou’s newly operational third runway is used for 10 flights a day, due to severe congestion.

Hong Kong’s Air Line Pilots Association, backed by 2,500 members across the city’s four major airlines, says its support for the third runway is contingent on airspace issues being resolved.

Source URL: http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1744090/airspace-deal-mainland-over-third-runway-chek-lap-lok-will-not-be

http://hongwrong.com/third-runway/

Hong Kong’s third runway is now reported to be a HK$140B (billion) project. How absurd is this? Let’s compare:

Beijing Capital International Airport – Market Capital HK$32.5B

Unlike Hong Kong International Airport, Beijing Capital International Airport is publicly listed, actually on Hong Kong Stock Exchange (0694.hk). With HK$140B, we can buy out Beijing’s airport 4 times.

London Heathrow Airport – Valued at HK$60B

There was a 8.65% stake sale of the Heathrow Airport Holdings for GBP392M (million)

in 2013. That would imply a full stake valuation of the airport to be around GBP4.5B (392M / .0865). Even by taking the peak of GDP/HK$ rate in 2013 at around HK$13 (currently HK$11.37), it would only be HK$60B, i.e. we can buy out the Heathrow Airport twice.

Berlin Airport New Runway – HK$32B

Just a few months ago, the scandal-dogged Berlin Airport asked for EUR 3.2B to build a new runway. That would translate to HK$32B, using EUR/HK$ exchange at that time (around HK$10, currently HK$8.23). Despite of potential construction complications due to our unique terrain and environmental consideration, HK$140B allow us building 4 new runways for Berlin. The Germans must envy us for such luxury.

Hong Kong International Airport (The Rose Garden Project) – HK$160B

The Hong Kong International Airport was a US$20B project at that time but note that it was a project comprised 10 core projects including the airport itself (with 2 runways), Tsing Ma Bridge, Western Harbour Crossing, North Lantau Expressway, Route 3 – Kwai Chung and Tsing Yi Sections, West Kowloon Highway, Land Reclamation in West Kowloon, Central Reclamation Phase I, and Phase I of North Lantau New Town. It was practically rebuilding part of HK. Can you imagine an additional runway costs almost the same? Even with inflation adjusted dollar, it doesn’t make sense.

For reference, our current airport has a fixed asset size of around HK$52B. With the miscellaneous supplemental projects built after the initial cutover of the airport, and depreciation/appreciation applied over the years, HK$52B may not exactly represent the proportion of the airport within the Rose Garden total. However, it gives you a sense of how much an airport (including 2 runways) should cost.

It’s going to be privately funded – does it concern me?

Yes, for one thing, whatever debt raised by the Airport Authority will be guaranteed by the Hong Kong government. If the project doesn’t pay back, Hong Kong taxpayers will have to subsidize it later.

Immediately, the Airport Authority is considering the suspension of the around HK$5B/year dividend payment to the Hong Kong government. Local residents ought prepare to shoulder up more taxes to fill in the HK$5B hole, and more directly, to pay more airport tax upcoming.

With the congestion of the two runways now, we have little objection to building a third runway, if the environment is taken into account. However, we should not be robbed. HK$140B is not only unreasonable, but downright robbery by vested interests. Just wonder, is this what the HK$50M paid to CY Leung is for? Or is this another “gift” to Chinese construction companies that will be ultimately given a piece of the pie, and come back later to claim their “love” for Hong Kong without mentioning how much they’ve earned during the process? HongKongers have already been overpaying for water. Now, they want more.

One of our group members foresees that we will end up being made to buy airspace from China in order to fully utilise the third runway. Water and construction are just the beginning. Prepare to be asked for showing more gratitude to the motherland.

FrontlineTechWorkers is formed by a group of IT practitioners with the aim to consolidate voices from IT workers on policy discussion in Hong Kong.

Parking space and floor area are almost halved in latest design, but bosses insists expansion can still serve 30 million more travellers a year

More questions are being raised over the Airport Authority’s HK$141.5 billion third runway – this time over the design, in which the number of aircraft parking slots and the floor area of a new concourse are slashed by almost half.

The revisions raise doubts about whether the expanded Chek Lap Kok airport can still serve 30 million more passengers a year, a projection made based on the old design.

According to the authority’s announcement on Tuesday, the concourse will now be “Y-shaped”, covering about 283,000 square metres and providing 57 plane parking spaces.

That contrasted with the original design, with two connected “Y”s yielding a floor area of 470,000 square metres and 106 parking spaces.

The authority did not point out during the announcement that the design had changed, although it did present pictures of the latest plans.

“We can still meet the target under this design,” a spokesman for the authority said yesterday.

The space where the other half of the concourse was to have been built would be “reserved for future purposes”, he added.

The Executive Council has approved the third runway and construction may start as early as next year despite unresolved issues about sharing airspace with the mainland and a looming judicial review over the project’s environmental impact.

Apart from these questions, the authority is set to skirt Legislative Council scrutiny by “self-financing” the work, so lawmakers do not have to approve its multibillion-dollar budget.

Gary Fan Kwok-wai, who sits on Legco’s transport panel, cast doubts on the projected airport capacity, now that the design was different. “The Airport Authority could be trying to make the costs appear lower first, to reduce the level of controversy,” he said. “The authority needs to offer a clear explanation.”

Green Sense president Roy Tam Hoi-pong said that if the airport’s extra handling capacity turned out to be lower than 30 million travellers, the authority might need – given its plan to offset the costs partly by charging carriers and passengers – more than HK$141.5 billion to complete the works.

Each outbound traveller is to fork out an “airport construction fee” of about HK$180, while landing fees for airlines will return to their pre-2000 levels, reversing a 15 per cent cut in place since 2000. Financing will also come from the authority’s surpluses and external financing via bank loans and bonds.

Separately, a concern group found in a study that many travellers at Chek Lap Kok were only in transit, so they would not go into the city and help the economy.

Michael Mo, president of the Airport Development Concern Network, cited the International Air Transport Association as saying in a 2011 report that 45.85 per cent of passengers at Chek Lap Kok were in transit.

That figure was expected to rise slightly to 46.05 per cent by 2023 and 46.76 per cent in 2030 under a three-runway system.

Mo said transit passengers would not boost the economy.

Tam shared his concerns, saying: “Society needs to think about whether it is worth spending more than HK$140 billion for so many transit passengers.”

The authority said transit travellers made up about a third of total travellers at present, and that there should not be big changes in this ratio in the future.

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Source URL (modified on Mar 20th 2015, 12:31am): http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1742168/third-hong-kong-airport-runway-come-smaller-facilities

Authorities have cleared the air about whether Hong Kong International Airport will have a third runway, the Executive Council having given it the green light and details of how it will be financed released. The HK$141.5 billion project is a necessity for development, ensuring that predicted increased numbers of travellers and volume of cargo will be able to effortlessly move in and out of our city. While a court challenge by environmentalists could cause a delay and funding from loans and bonds has to be secured, work can now begin in earnest on turning plans into reality. One major matter remains unresolved, though: the use of mainland airspace.

More than a decade of talks by a working group of aviation officials from Hong Kong, Guangdong, Shenzhen and Macau have failed to resolve airspace problems. Congestion is a long-standing issue in southern China’s skies, in part due to demand, but also because of People’s Liberation Army control and restrictions. Even if there are no military exercises along a flight path, planes from Hong Kong entering mainland airspace have to first circle to 4,300 metres. The consequences, beyond increased flight times, delays and bigger fuel costs for airlines, is an inability to maximise runway usage.

That raises doubts about whether the new runway can be fully utilised; Guangzhou’s recently opened third one has added just 10 flights a day. The planned airstrip will lift the limit at Chek Lap Kok from 68 flights an hour to an anticipated 102, but that will depend on resolution of outstanding problems. Authorities are confident issues will be resolved within five years, although they have not given reasons for their optimism.

If construction work on the runway and associated facilities begins next year, the runway will be ready for use in 2023. Hong Kong cannot afford significant delays; the airport’s two runways are already handling 66 flights an hour during peak periods, leaving little space for extra capacity. Airport Authority projections foresee that by 2030, our city will be receiving almost 30 per cent more passengers a year to 90 million and at least a doubling of cargo to nine million tonnes. Opportunities and revenue will be lost if time is needlessly wasted.

Working closely with aviation authorities in the Pearl River Delta region has to be a priority. Talks on joint airspace planning, use of common standards and design of flight procedures have to stay on track. Without agreements, Hong Kong’s third runway risks becoming a white elephant project.

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Source URL (modified on Mar 20th 2015, 1:05am): http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1742278/resolving-airspace-issues-key-success-hong-kongs-third

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=4&art_id=155401&sid=44109897&con_type=1&d_str=20150320&fc=8

Is it worth building a HK$141.5 billion runway when about 47 percent of passengers will not “stay and shop” in the SAR?

That is the worry expressed by the Airport Development Concern Network and environmental group Green Sense in questioning the costs and benefits of the Airport Authority’s third runway project, which was given the go- ahead this week.

Network spokesman Michael Mo Kwan-tai said 46.7 percent of some 73 million non-Hong Kong passengers or some 34.1 million will only be transiting in 2030.

He based this on the Hong Kong Airport Authority’s 2030 primary traffic forecast report published by the International Air Transport Association in 2011.

This year, the report estimates, non-Hong Kong transiting passengers will be about 19.5 million, or 45.8 percent of 42.5 million travelers.

Green Sense chief executive Roy Tam Hoi-pong said transiting passengers will not stay and shop.

“The authority is always saying that [the airport] will be saturated, but the reason is not because of locals, but because demand by mainlanders traveling overseas has risen,” Tam said.

“The authority increased the flights for them, but it was a `saturation’ trap.”

He called on Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung to disclose details of a 2007 deal Hong Kong signed with Beijing and Macau for coordinating the air space.

Mo also said transit passengers will only be paying the HK$180 airport construction fee and not the HK$120 departure tax.

Hongkongers have to pay both the fees from next year every time they use the airport.

Neo Democrat lawmaker Gary Fan Kwok-wai of the said he will propose a special subcommittee be set up in the House Committee today so that authority officials can explain the project.

An airport spokeswoman said the three-runway system could bring an extra HK$450 billion in economic gains stemming from cost-effectiveness. KENNETH LAU

Anthony Cheung outlines the detailed consideration of the financial, environmental and logistical aspects behind the Airport Authority’s plan for a third runway, which is essential for Hong Kong’s competitiveness

Over the past decade, passenger numbers and cargo tonnage at Hong Kong International Airport have risen by 8 per cent and 5 per cent respectively on average per year. The number of flight movements has gone up 65 per cent, to 391,000 last year.

Each day, about 1,100 planes fly to and from some 180 destinations worldwide, including mainland cities, making Hong Kong a global aviation hub and contributing immensely to our trade, logistics and tourism industries.

However, the current two-runway system can only allow for a practical maximum capacity of 68 flights per hour. If the present air traffic growth trend continues, the airport will reach saturation in the coming two years.

If it is not to give up its hard-earned hub status, amid fierce competition from other international airports in the region, notably Singapore, Seoul and Shanghai, as well as Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the Pearl River Delta area, which are all expanding, there is no alternative but to build a third runway without delay.

The question is therefore not “whether” or “when”, but “how” to take the project forward.

Under the Airport Authority’s plan, a three-runway system can handle around 100 million passengers and cargo throughput of some 9 million tonnes by 2030.

The authority has already completed a rigorous statutory environmental impact assessment covering 12 aspects, including aircraft noise, air quality, marine ecology and impact on human health. A total of 250 mitigation and enhancement measures, including setting up the city’s largest-ever, 2,400-hectare marine park, were committed in the report to address public opinion and the views of the Advisory Council on the Environment.

The director of environmental protection granted the environmental permit for the project last November, with conditions. The Airport Authority has taken these conditions fully on board and aims to achieve “development alongside environmental conservation” under its vision to be one of the world’s greenest airports.

The authority has put up a self-financing plan based on the “joint contribution” principle for this mega infrastructure, estimated to cost HK$141.5 billion in money-of-the-day prices. It comprises raising market borrowings, given the authority’s triple-A credit rating; restoring present airport charges for airlines to pre-2000 levels, with subsequent adjustments in line with inflation; and introducing an airport construction fee per departing passenger, excepting those in transit. The authority also plans to retain all profits earned without dividend payment for 10 years.

The government supports this joint-contribution approach. Through borrowings, the market will exercise financial prudence in scrutinising the business viability of the project. Charging an airport construction fee to help finance expansion is not uncommon overseas.

However, the government is of the view that the Airport Authority should maximise borrowings and lower the construction fee so as to reduce the burden on passengers. It should also design airline charges so as to facilitate and encourage the most efficient use of the airport, and encourage the use of more wide-body planes.

Airspace and its management naturally determine how much air traffic an airport can accommodate within international safety limits. The airspace over Hong Kong and the surrounding delta area has seen tremendous growth since the 2000s.

In 2004, recognising the need to optimise the use and management of delta airspace, a tripartite working group was formed among the Civil Aviation Administration of China, Hong Kong’s Civil Aviation Department and the Civil Aviation Authority of Macau to enhance cooperation, coordination and standardisation of procedures and measurements.

The result was the delta airspace management plan in 2007 aimed at implementing various improvement measures in phases before 2020. The airport authority’s target runway capacity of 102 flights per hour (or 620,000 flights per year) under the three-runway system was premised on such a plan, which also envisaged five runways for Guangzhou and three for Shenzhen.

The Civil Aviation Department has been engaging mainland authorities to take forward the 2007 plan, and some measures have been rolled out in recent years.

The central authorities, including the Civil Aviation Administration, are supportive of the three-runway system so as to maintain Hong Kong’s global aviation hub position. We will continue to work closely with the administration on technical solutions to optimise the use of delta airspace and meet the operational needs of all sides.

The Airport Authority will take into consideration the government’s feedback and review its proposals, making adjustments to ensure the financing arrangements are fair and reasonable, and that the capital investment is well justified. It will also develop appropriate planning contingencies and cost-control measures.

Some critics of the third runway have suggested that the airport could expand the existing 68 flights per hour limit to 86 flights even with two runways, citing a 1992 report prepared for the then Provisional Airport Authority. Such a suggestion is based on a wrong understanding.

That report actually pointed to a maximum capacity of between 52 and 86 flights per hour for dual runways, depending on various conditions and constraints. Due to the surrounding terrain, notably Lantau’s high mountains, it would be impractical and unsafe under international standards to achieve the higher targets.

The Civil Aviation Department’s commissioned consultancy in 1994 confirmed a two-runway maximum capacity of 63 movements per hour. Subsequently, the UK-based NATS reviewed this capacity in 2008 and concluded that, using the latest air traffic control technology, it could be raised to 68 flights per hour, subject to various enhancement measures.

We know for sure that maintaining the status quo would mean no growth for Hong Kong aviation, losing our business and hub advantage to neighbouring international airports, and reducing our economic competitiveness. Just enhancing terminal and cargo facilities with only two runways will not remove the ultimate runway capacity bottleneck.

Professor Anthony Cheung Bing-leung is secretary for transport and housing
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Source URL (modified on Mar 19th 2015, 5:51pm): http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1742054/risks-carefully-weighed-airport-expansion-plan-thats-vital

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.asp?we_cat=11&art_id=155344&sid=44102107&con_type=1&d_str=20150319&fc=4

Former director of civil aviation Albert Lam Kwong-yu has challenged the government to show him the whole air traffic management agreement with the mainland and Macau governments, adding he does not trust the current director.

Secretary for Transport and Housing Anthony Cheung Bing-leung said on Tuesday the airspace problem that could have an impact on the new third runway to be built at a cost of HK$141.5 billion by 2023 if it can start construction next year could be solved by coordination among the three governments.

Cheung was asked on a radio program about comments made by Lam and a former civil aviation director, Peter Lok Kung-nam, that without additional airspace a third runway would not meet its expansion target.

Cheung said the two former directors had left their posts many years ago and did not understand the current situation.

He was confident the local and mainland authorities could resolve the issue involving the airspace in the Pearl River Delta so that the Chek Lap Kok airport can achieve its target of 102 flights per hour, compared with the current 68, when the runway is built.

But Lam said he could not trust civil aviation director Norman Lo Shung-man.

“Show me what you have done in the agreement,” Lam told iCable last night.

Shenzhen will have three runways while Guangzhou will have five, said Cheung.

Lok told TVB last night there would be less room for Shenzhen to share its airspace in the future.

“It [Shenzhen] has three runways, and Hong Kong will also have three runways; both are rivals and you cannot assume that Hong Kong can get the airspace and commence the work now. The risk is too high.”

Lok suggested that real-time testing be done using a computer for a year to collect more data before starting the project.

Former Hong Kong Observatory director Lam Chiu-ying also cast doubt on the cost-effectiveness and financing plan for the third runway as the airspace in the Pearl River Delta is already too busy to accommodate more flights.

The Civil Aviation Department will soon conduct research on optimizing efficiency, a source close to the government said. A scientific study will also begin in which different scenarios will be evaluated.

Hong Kong’s crowded airspace is like a “saturated water pipe” and would prevent a multi-billion dollar third runway at the city’s international airport from meeting its expansion target, the former Observatory chief said today.

Former Observatory director Lam Chiu-ying cast doubts on the cost-effectiveness and financing plan of the proposed HK$141.5 billion third runway at Chek Lap Kok airport, saying that airspace in the Pearl River Delta was already too busy to accommodate more flights.

Upon its planned completion in 2023, the runway will reportedly allow Chek Lap Kok airport to serve 30 million more passengers a year.

But speaking during an RTHK radio show, Lam gave the example of a newly-built third runway at Guangzhou’s Baiyun International Airport. He said the facility, opened in February, had increased the airport’s traffic by just 10 flights per day because of a lack of airspace in the region.

Hong Kong airport faced the same problem, said Lam, who is now convener of concern group People’s Aviation Watch.

“The flights have to enter an airway that is now like a saturated water pipe,” he said. “Even with an extra runway, you cannot send more flights into the skies”.

His view was echoed by former civil aviation department head Lam Kwon-yu, who said officials had so far failed to give details on whether mainland China would allow Hong Kong to use some of its airspace.

The former aviation chief agreed that without more airspace, a third runway would not meet its expansion target.

He said Hong Kong could reorganise its airport resources to focus on providing more international flights when cross-border links such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau bridge and the high speed rail link to the mainland are completed in future.

“Hong Kong should make more use of its advantage, which is our international network,” he said. He added that this could attract mainland travellers to use Hong Kong’s international flights.

Lam Chiu-ying was also opposed to the current financing plan – in which funds are to be drawn internally from the Airport Authority’s surpluses, user charges – said to be HK$180 per departing passenger – and external financing via bank loans and bonds.

The authority will also stop paying annual dividends to the government – its sole shareholder – denying the public purse of about HK$50 billion over the next 10 years, based on last year’s figures.

Lam Chiu-ying said raising funds via loans and bonds would make the airport vulnerable to the external economic environment. He said there was a risk, although it looked small, of the authority being left in the red if the global economy receded significantly.

“In that case the airport may go to the hands of foreign investors,” he said. “The airport holds a strategically significant position from the national defence point of view. It cannot afford to go into foreign hands.”

He said the authority should drop the current financing plan and instead seek public funds from the Legislative Council.

Economists however, said that the authority’s plan to finance the third runway is viable and that an expected rise in US interest rates should have little impact on the plan.

Andy Kwan Cheuk-chiu, director of the ACE Centre for Business and Economic Research, said that the expected increase in United States interest rates will not be large. It means that it will not push up the interest rate of the authority’s external financing via bank loans and bonds by much.

“If the authority wants to lower the controversy generated by the runway’s cost, it can issue more bonds,” he said.

Bank of East Asia chief economist Paul Tang Sai-on said the financing plan is feasible because it is a “multiple-channel approach”.

“A multiple-channel approach is the best option because it reduces the risk,” he said.

He said Hongkongers should not just look at how much the runway will cost, but how much returns the authority will be able to generate.

Chek Lap Kok airport served more than 63 million passengers and processed 4.4 million tonnes of cargo last year.

Source URL (modified on Mar 18th 2015, 6:11pm): http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1740885/hong-kong-airport-third-runway-will-fail-take-due-crowded-airspace