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Financial Crisis

Bikes Boom In Taiwan As Belts Tighten

Amber Wang – SCMP | Updated on Nov 08, 2008

For the past six months Wayne Hsu has been cycling 45 minutes to his office every day, which he says gets him off to an energetic start and, more importantly, slashes his monthly petrol bill.
Hsu, an airline sales representative in northern Taoyuan county, is among a growing number of people in Taiwan opting for bikes over cars amid rising inflation and a slowing economy.

“Cycling is an inexpensive way to exercise and I’ve encouraged my colleagues and even my boss to follow my lead,” he says.

The new-found devotion to cycling is a great boon for bicycle manufacturers on the island, which was once the world’s leading exporter but has watched business fall since the mid-1990s due to dumping charges and relocations of factories to China where production costs are much lower.

China now is the world’s major supplier of low-cost bicycles, while Taiwan retains its edge in high-end products such as racing-style, mountain and folding bikes with an average price tag of US$222, according to the economics ministry.

Exports reached a record high last year of US$1.05 billion with 4.75 million bikes sold abroad, while this year looks set to break that record with the export of 2.76 million bikes totalling US$635 million in the first six months, government figures showed.

There’s no official data on how many bicycles are sold locally, but industry watchers estimate around 1 million were sold last year on the island of 23 million people.

“Business was booming in 2007 and this year looks to be the best,” says Jeffrey Sheu, spokesman for the world’s leading bicycle maker, Giant Manufacturing.

“Our monthly revenue hit a historical high in August, and September looks like setting a new record.”

Giant’s August and September group revenue rose 27 per cent and 35 per cent year on year to NT$3.91 billion (HK$925 million) and NT$4.12 billion respectively, while revenue is projected to increase for the whole of the year by at least 25 per cent to NT$40 billion.

“Our staff are constantly working overtime to meet the ever-growing demand,” says Sheu.

Orders have poured in for Giant products until the middle of next year, prompting the addition of a new assembly line at its central Taichung base to boost annual production to 1 million bikes from the current 600,000.

As inflation soars and financial markets tumble, Taiwan’s bicycle manufacturers and other businesses catering to the thrifty are thriving as the public becomes increasingly eager to economise.

Pacific Cycles, a Taoyuan-based exporter, began selling its signature folding bikes at home in 2005, and since then they’ve become popular with city dwellers for their lightweight and convenient features.

“Our domestic sales are estimated to increase by 100 per cent this year, compared with 10 to 30 per cent in the past,” despite a 66 per cent price hike to NT$50,000 per bike, says marketing manager Max Yeh.

The folding bike, fondly dubbed “xiao che” in Putonghua, or “little foldable” by fans, weighs about 10kg.

The company will soon unveil a second plant, Yeh says.

Ed Lu, an avid fan of the folding bike in the capital Taipei, says cycling to work helps him relax but he added that he’d prefer cleaner air for the ride.

“If more people start cycling instead of driving, we would be able to improve the air quality while reducing traffic jams,” he says. Lu reflects a growing environmental awareness that bicycle manufacturers say has contributed to the growth in Taiwan.

“The public realise that driving less helps reduce air pollution to protect the environment against global warming,” says Giant’s Sheu.

Taiwan’s government has also promised to expand paths, in a bid to promote cycling as part of its “green policy” aimed at saving energy and reducing carbon emissions.

“The market is likely to peak this year … but cycling requires persistence and it’s restricted by weather conditions,” he says. “We hope more people will cycle regularly as a way of life and not just do so because it’s trendy.”

Agence France-Presse

Economy May Affect Greenhouse Gas Targets

Stephen Chen – SCMP | Updated on Nov 08, 2008

China would have a difficult task in overcoming economic hurdles to meet its greenhouse gas emissions targets, a senior central government official said yesterday. Miao Xu, deputy minister of industry and information technology, said in Shanghai that the nation was facing a lot of unexpected adversities this year from home and abroad, making the task of cutting emissions and pollution extremely challenging, Xinhua reported.

The country’s goal, set by the 11th Five-Year Plan, was to cut energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product by 20 per cent in 2010 and emissions of major pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide and airborne dust, by 10 per cent from 2006.

But even with a thriving economy in the plan’s first two years, the country failed to keep up with the annual benchmarks and, because of a disappointing performance in the first half of this year, will probably miss the mark again.

Those failures would make the job difficult, if not impossible in the next two years, Mr Miao said.

To make things worse, an unprecedented blizzard and earthquake hit the nation this year before the world’s biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression began.

He said that to meet the emissions targets in the plan’s remaining two years, the country would have to reduce energy consumption by 18 per cent through industrial upgrades, including rapidly adopting some of the world’s most advanced manufacturing technology.

Mainland enterprises, from steel to power and light industry, have invested heavily in energy efficiency, mostly through funds raised in a booming stock market and foreign investment.

But mainland stock markets have dropped by more than 70 per cent this year, and many companies have reported sharp falls in profit, and even losses.

Gross domestic product in the first three quarters dropped to 9.9 per cent, a 2.3 percentage-point decline from last year, recording the first growth rate below 10 per cent in five years.

The growth rate of large industries was cut by more than 3 percentage points, and investment in infrastructure fell by 10 per cent.

It would be difficult to imagine that, under such economic circumstances, business would have much incentive to take part in the global anti-climate-warming campaign, some environmental experts said.

Even so, the government was considering dramatically increasing public investment to meet the emissions target, Huang Li , deputy director of the National Energy Bureau’s energy conservation and scientific equipment department, told Xinhua in Chengdu yesterday.

The State Council had discussed a proposal to nearly double the targeted nuclear capacity to 7,000 MW by 2020, Mr Huang said.

UN Environment Boss Warns Economic Crisis Will Diminish Climate-change Commitment

Reuters | Updated on Nov 08, 2008

The global financial gloom would make citizens of rich nations reluctant to use taxes to fight global warming, and any plan to help poor nations should make the polluters pay, the UN’s climate boss said. The warning cast doubt on a Chinese proposal to ask the world’s rich nations to devote up to 1 per cent of their economic worth to pay for cleaner expansion in poorer countries.

“It is undeniable that the financial crisis will have an impact on the climate change negotiations,” said Yvo de Boer, who heads the UN Climate Change Secretariat.

More than 190 nations have agreed to seek a new UN treaty by the end of next year on greenhouse gases. He said the polluters should be directly targeted as a source of revenue to help developing countries.

Speaking ahead of a conference on climate technology transfer in Beijing, Mr de Boer warned the rich world that under a road map for a climate deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol, they had to create revenue to help developing nations fund greener growth.

The plan accepted in Bali last year committed poor countries to curbing emissions if rich governments helped with technology so they did not sacrifice economic growth.

He praised China’s leadership in negotiations and its effort to firm up demands for technology.

“This is a great opportunity for the country that has put so much emphasis on this issue to really focus the debate on how technology transfer can be part of the long-term … response.”

While the financial crisis threatened efforts to tackle global warming, he said, it could also give impetus to talks aimed at forging a climate-change pact.

The crisis has also highlighted the benefits of a trading system, favoured by most rich nations, that sets pollution limits but allows companies to buy and sell quotas to meet their targets.

The auction of credits to pollute could fund cleaner development in poor nations, he said.

A flat carbon tax would be more efficient than the current system, but more complicated to implement, he added.

Well Positioned To Help Fuel Future Growth

Thomas Tang – SCMP | Updated on Nov 05, 2008

The financial crisis has focused the minds of everyone on the economy. Cuts in interest rates to maintain liquidity are the measures currently being discussed in macroeconomic circles. However, despite the ominous likelihood of a recession, does this mean that Hong Kong will just seize up?

An alternative is to adopt a bolder approach, to restructure markets to make them sounder and more rational – and use these mechanisms to address a much longer-term but equally pressing global problem, climate change.

Lord Stern, the former adviser to the British government on climate change, spoke to some of the major business leaders in Hong Kong recently to outline the steps mankind must take to avoid the catastrophic effects of increasing carbon emissions in the atmosphere.

Since 2000, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have climbed by 2 parts per million annually, due to soaring use of fossil fuels to power the world’s economic growth.

The present level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is around 438 parts per million; if this amount is allowed to increase at the current rate, then by 2050 we are looking at over 500 parts per million and a corresponding increase in average temperatures.

To staunch this calamitous trend, Lord Stern spoke of the need to cut emissions by 50 per cent by 2050 (based on 1990 levels) to bring global carbon emissions under control. But, as he stressed, it is not a case of forgoing economic growth; it is about growth in a low-carbon economy. Under the Apec Leaders’ Declaration on Climate Change, Energy Security and Clean Development, made in September last year, Hong Kong has committed itself to reducing energy use by 25 per cent by 2030 (using 2005 as a base year).

Hong Kong now emits between nine and 10 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person each year, which is roughly in line with most developed nations. The US emits between 20 and 25 tonnes per capita, while the figure for China is about 5 tonnes.

In his policy address this year, the chief executive put the emphasis on an economy based on low energy consumption and low pollution through energy efficiency, clean fuels and energy conservation.

Mandatory building codes on energy, energy audits and energy labelling are commendable, and a step in the right direction. The government should also consider road pricing and carbon taxes. Meanwhile, there is a growing array of low-carbon technologies that are well suited to Hong Kong’s needs.

The question is one of money. This brings us back to the sourcing and application of funds – surely it would have been far better for investors to spend money on low-carbon technology, rather than on the risky financial products that led to the minibond debacle.

This is where business can lead, by redirecting funds to more appropriate causes, and for government to pursue sensible, viable projects that have both commercial and environmental benefits.

Hong Kong could make a significant contribution abroad. For example, almost a quarter of carbon emissions arise through the loss of natural forests, either through felling or burning. The world’s forests act as global “sinks” for carbon; any disruption in these ecosystems has a profound effect on emission levels. Hong Kong could help protect vital forests by purchasing carbon credits from clean energy projects in developing economies.

Shored up by the mainland, which is committed to reducing emissions as well as maintaining economic growth, Hong Kong is well positioned to become the green finance centre of the region.

As the world battens down for the coming recession, Hong Kong can use its financial clout to shift focus to another global problem – but one that deals with real-life issues. That is what leadership is about.

Dr Thomas Tang is executive director of the Global Institute for Tomorrow

Scientist Warns Emissions Trading Scheme Too Little, Too Late

Article from: The Courier-Mail, By Greg Stolz | October 31, 2008

  • Flannery pessimistic about ETS
  • Predicts catastrophe within a decade
  • Impact will be unexpected

AN emissions trading scheme will not be enough to stop a potential climatic catastrophe on the same scale as the global financial crisis within 10 years, Australian scientist Tim Flannery has warned.

Dr Flannery told an international carbon market conference on the Gold Coast yesterday that emissions trading schemes alone could not save the planet in time.

The 2007 Australian of the Year said he had a “sense of foreboding” about what lay ahead if more was not done to tackle climate change.

“I suspect that within the next decade, we are likely to see some dramatic climate shift a bit like we’ve seen in our financial systems over the last few months,” he told the Carbon Market Expo Australasia conference.

“It will be swift and it will have many unintended consequences. The problem is a lot closer than we imagined.”

Dr Flannery said the catastrophe could be a large-scale methane release which would cook the planet or major ice sheet destabilisation.

He had not seen the Rudd Government’s economic modelling for the proposed emissions trading scheme but said critics should look to Europe as a guide.

“There has been no impact in Europe and there is likely to be a small impact if any in Australia in my view,” he said.

One of the best ways to slow climate change was to harness the planet’s huge natural power to suck carbon pollution out of the atmosphere, he said

Emissions At Least On Par With US: Beijing Admits It May Be World’s Top Polluter

Shi Jiangtao in Beijing – SCMP | Updated on Oct 30, 2008

A top climate official has admitted the mainland’s greenhouse gas emissions are at least on a par with those of the United States, but said the unfolding financial crisis was presenting new economic and technological opportunities to restructure the international campaign against global warming.

Xie Zhenhua , deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, also said yesterday rich countries must take the lead in cutting greenhouse gas emissions, and contributing money and technology to developing countries.

It was the first time the central government had publicly acknowledged that China may have passed the US to become the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter.

“Based on information we have at hand, our total emissions are roughly the same as the US,” Mr Xie said at the launch of the country’s first white paper on tackling climate change.

International research institutes and experts have said for two years that China’s output of carbon dioxide, the key greenhouse gas, had surpassed that of the US, given that the latest data on China’s greenhouse gas emissions was from 1994.

But Mr Xie said: “Whether or not we have surpassed the US is not in itself important.” He repeated China’s stance that it was only fair to consider historical and accumulated emissions in determining whether developed or developing countries should play a bigger role in the global fight against climate change.

The white paper says: “Developed countries should be responsible for their accumulative emissions and current high per capita emissions, and take the lead in reducing emissions, in addition to providing financial support and transferring technologies to developing countries.”

Mr Xie said China’s per-capita emissions for its 1.3 billion people remain much lower than those of rich countries, and was about a fifth of the US average. “As China is in the process of industrialisation and urbanisation, it is fairly natural that the country’s greenhouse gas emissions grow very fast,” he said.

He also said it was not fair for China to take responsibility for emissions generated on behalf of countries that consumed Chinese exports, which accounted for 24 per cent of the country’s total emissions.

Both the white paper and Mr Xie played down the growing criticism over China’s refusal to accept a mandatory target in cutting emissions.

“There is no doubt that under the Kyoto Protocol, developed countries must take the lead in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions,” Mr Xie said.

Under the UN-sponsored treaty, developing countries are not obliged to accept mandatory caps, but the US has refused to ratify it, citing the framework’s failure to hold China and India more responsible.

“But regardless of the results of international negotiations and how much developed countries honour their commitments, China from its own perspective must realise sustainable development,” Mr Xie said. “We must save energy, raise energy efficiency, develop renewable energies and adopt measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gases.”

He said the financial turmoil should be viewed as an opportunity for China as well as the whole world to carry out economic restructuring, promoting environmentally friendly technology and cutting pollution.

“Tackling climate change and the financial crisis is not contradictory,” he said. “We will seize the opportunity to increase domestic demand and funding on energy efficiency. We will have to solve climate change and environmental problems through development.”

Mr Xie said developed countries should contribute at least 0.7 per cent of their gross domestic products to help developing countries fight global warming.

Analysts said the release of the policy paper as well as recent remarks by mainland officials were part of Beijing’s strategy amid intense negotiations on a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

An international climate change seminar on technology transfer organised by the UN and China will be held in Beijing next week, and delegates from more than 190 countries will participate in another key UN conference on climate change in Poznan, Poland, in December.

Yang Ailun , from Greenpeace China, said the white paper was basically a review of the government’s achievements in tackling climate change in the past few years.

“While it may not have much new information, it is clearly aimed at highlighting China’s progress in cutting emissions ahead of international negotiations,” she said.

Black Cloud Has Silver Lining

SCMP | Updated on Oct 28, 2008

The global slowdown has resulted in the closure of a number of factories. As many of these factories were polluters, this has meant cleaner air.

Also, as the credit crunch affects individuals, many have stopped driving to save money and are using public transport. This has led to a reduction in emissions.

The economic tsunami has brought tough times to us all but, in terms of the environment, we should see something good coming from this.

I hope that if the air does become cleaner, that when the economy improves, we will try and keep it that way.

We have been through crises before but, just like the meltdown in 1997, we will emerge from this.

As I said, I hope we can learn from our mistakes regarding the environment, so that climate change does not get worse.

Harina Fong, Wong Tai Sin

Environmental Salvation May Be A Case Of Smoke And Mirrors

Alister Doyle – SCMP | Updated on Oct 28, 2008

Backers of extreme technologies to curb global warming advocate dumping iron dust into the seas or placing smoke and mirrors in the sky to dim the sun.

But, even though they are seen by some as cheap fixes for climate change when many nations are worried about economic recession, such “geo-engineering” proposals have to overcome wide criticism that they are fanciful and could have unforeseen side effects.

“We are at the boundaries, treading in areas that we are not normally dealing with,” said Rene Coenen, head of the Office for the London Convention, an international organisation that regulates dumping at sea.

The London Convention, part of the International Maritime Organisation, will review ocean fertilisation at a meeting this week.

Among those hoping for approval for tests is Margaret Leinin, chief science officer of California-based Climos, a company that is looking at ways to use the oceans to soak up greenhouse gases. “The world has not been able to get carbon emissions under control” Dr Leinin said. “We should look at other options.”

Climos is seeking to raise money to test adding iron dust to the southern ocean to spur growth of algae that grow by absorbing heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the air. When algae die, they fall to the seabed and so remove carbon.

Other short-cut ideas include spraying a smoke of tiny particles of pollutants into the sky to dim sunlight, or even deploying a vast thin metallic barrier in space, with 100 space shuttle flights, to deflect the sun’s rays.

The UN Climate Panel has said world greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, mainly burning fossil fuels, rose 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004.

But it said that fertilising the oceans or dimming the sun “remain largely speculative and unproven, and with the risk of unknown side-effects”.

“More evidence has been coming in since then, but it’s far from making a reliable case for geo-engineering,” said Terry Barker, head of the Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research and one of the leading authors of the UN panel report.

The seas are already suffering enough from a “chemical soup” of pollution from humans, he said. “There’s no need to add to the mess.”

With fears of recession amid the deepest financial crisis since the 1930s, some governments may find cheap geo-engineering attractive compared with reducing carbon emissions. “It would be shortsighted,” Dr Barker said.

Last year, the London Convention said that “knowledge about the effectiveness and potential environmental impacts of ocean iron fertilisation was currently insufficient to justify large-scale operations.”

Those doubts were “still valid”, the convention’s Mr Coenen said.

Firms such as Australia’s Ocean Nourishment, Atmocean in New Mexico and Climos are working on varying sea-based projects. Another firm, Planktos, indefinitely suspended operations in February after failing to raise cash.

Some like Climos hope that sucking carbon into the ocean, if it works, could qualify for credits as carbon trading.

“It is possible to design experiments to avoid harm to the oceans,” said Dr Leinin. Climos wants to test iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean, at the earliest in January 2010, in a trial that could cost US$15 million to US$20 million, she said. If it works, Dr Leinin said, it could be one of the cheapest ways to combat global warming.

Among objections are that carbon makes water more acidic and could undermine the ability of shellfish, crabs or lobsters to build shells. That, in turn, could disrupt the marine food chain.

Backers of geo-engineering say the risks are slight compared to far bigger disruptions from climate change, stoked by human emissions of greenhouse gases, which could lead to heatwaves, floods, droughts, more disease or rising seas.

“We are already bludgeoning nature,” said Victor Smetacek, a professor at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, who is planning an iron sulphate fertilisation experiment off Antarctica early next year.

His institute will co-operate with India to disperse 20 tonnes of iron sulphate near South Georgia over 300 sq km.

“Iron has a very positive effect. Added to the ocean, it’s like water in the desert,” he said. “We don’t have space to store the carbon we are producing on land,” he said of proposals including planting more forests.

They will study how far algae grow and absorb carbon. The extra algae, as food, might help a recovery of stocks of shrimp-like krill, a species on which penguins and whales depend.

Among other schemes, Nobel chemistry prize winner Paul Crutzen has floated the idea of blitzing the upper atmosphere with sulphur particles to reflect some sunlight back into space.

“The price is not a factor … it’s peanuts,” he said in Nicosia earlier this month. “The cost has been estimated at some US$10 million to US$20 million a year.”

Similar smoke is released by volcanic eruptions, such as Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 or Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815. The Indonesia eruption led to a “year without a summer” in many parts of the world, according to reports at the time.

Other proposals reviewed by the UN Climate Panel include installing a metallic screen covering a 106 sq km patch of space 1.5 million km away from Earth in the direction of the Sun.

The 3,000-tonne structure could be put in place over 100 years by 100 space shuttle flights. “The cost has yet to be determined”, the panel said.

Another idea is to spew more sea spray into the air – a natural process caused by waves. This could make low-level clouds slightly whiter and bounce solar rays back into space.

Advantages are that the only ingredient is sea water, and the system could be turned off. But the UN panel said “the meteorological ramifications need further study”.


Go Green To Beat Recession Blues

Timothy Chui – The Standard | Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Businesses that manage to survive the global economic crisis will face even bigger challenges from climate change unless they retool their operations now, according to the world’s foremost climate- change economist.

“The risk consequences of ignoring climate change will be very much bigger than ignoring risks in the financial system,” former British Treasury economist Lord Nicholas Stern said.

Describing the current financial crisis as the worst since World War II, Stern is forecasting recession for 80 percent of the developed world.

He said governments, while spending to bolster the financial system, should also take the opportunity to reshape the economy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

“Markets will change. If you get locked into high carbon technology and the price of carbon goes up, which it will, then you’ve got a real profit risk. Those who innovate first will get the biggest returns,” he said.

Stern told an assembly of leading businesses at the Climate Group’s 2008 Conference at the JW Marriott yesterday that Hong Kong, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is among the top 10 most vulnerable cities to climate change from sea level rise and air pollution.

Fresh from last week’s Asia-Europe Meeting in Beijing, where mainland authorities signaled their commitment to the global climate change effort to be outlined in Copenhagen next year, Stern said the likely target of 50 percent carbon dioxide reductions by 2050 would require developed nations to cut their emissions by 80 percent.

The former economist also called for more public money to be poured into carbon neutral research and development, including carbon neutral road transport and power generation.

The author of 2006 Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change said regulations such as banning combustion cars from cities by 2020 may revolutionize automobiles the way regulations that abolished leaded fuel did.

Head of HSBC Corporate Sustainability Teresa Au Pui-yi pegged the impact of rising sea levels at trillions of dollars.

Chief executive officer of Climate Group Steve Howard said delaying some key technology such as carbon capture and storage by one year would mean the concentration of CO2 mid-century going up one part per million.

“We probably only have leeway of a few tenths of parts per million,” Howard said.

Low-carbon Path Offers Way Out Of Downturn, Says HSBC Adviser

Kandy Wong, SCMP – Updated on Oct 28, 2008

The current economic crisis should not be an excuse to delay implementing low-carbon-emissions policies, according to Lord Nicholas Stern.

Rather, he said, it was the time to lay the foundations for tackling global warming.

“The transition to a low-carbon growth path will lead to numerous new opportunities across a wide range of businesses and industries,” said Lord Stern, a former chief economist for the World Bank and now a special adviser for HSBC’s economic development and climate change group.

That was why, he said at a press briefing yesterday in Hong Kong, he was confident countries and companies would launch carbon-reduction programmes even amid the current global crisis.

Big retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores and Tesco of Britain were concerned about the energy used throughout their supply chain, he said. Eventually, Tesco would label products with the amount of emissions in their making.

“This is the way the market is going,” Lord Stern said.

According to figures from the United States Energy Information Administration, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations climbed 2.2 parts per million last year to 383 ppm.

The agency also found that since 2000 carbon dioxide levels had risen 2 ppm annually, compared with 1.5 ppm during the 1990s and 1.6 ppm in the 1980s.

Lord Stern said the “transformation to a global low-carbon economy is one way through the economic downturn … on to a more sustainable growth path for the future”.

It is estimated that the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions will reach 31.1 billion tonnes by 2010, up from 28.1 billion tonnes in 2005.

“There was a three-day extended discussion last week in Beijing about carbon emissions and low-carbon growth,” Lord Stern said. “The European leaders will get on with lowering emissions” while the US and China will also take action in the next months, he said.

Leaders from Asia and Europe agreed there should be new regulations for carbon reduction, new market prices for carbon and higher prices for high-carbon emission products.

In 2006, Lord Stern’s publication, the Stern Review, estimated that the overall cost of climate change will range from 5 per cent to 20 per cent of gross domestic product if actions are not taken to reduce carbon emissions.

On the other hand, he indicated that taking strong action now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would cost about 1 per cent of GDP annually.

“I believe the challenges of the financial crisis for Britain and the United States may last for one to two years more. But, regardless, governments in different countries are taking actions to boost the [sustainable] economy,” Lord Stern said yesterday.

World leaders have agreed to cut overall carbon emissions by 50 per cent globally by 2050.