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January 15th, 2013:

Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

Jan 15th, 2013
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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50171/abstract

  1. T. C. Bond1,*,
  2. S. J. Doherty2,
  3. D. W. Fahey3,
  4. P. M. Forster4,
  5. T. Berntsen5,
  6. B. J. DeAngelo6,
  7. M. G. Flanner7,
  8. S. Ghan8,
  9. B. Kärcher9,
  10. D. Koch10,
  11. S. Kinne11,
  12. Y. Kondo12,
  13. P. K. Quinn13,
  14. M. C. Sarofim6,
  15. M. G. Schultz14,
  16. M. Schulz15,
  17. C. Venkataraman16,
  18. H. Zhang17,
  19. S. Zhang18,
  20. N. Bellouin19,
  21. S. K. Guttikunda20,
  22. P. K. Hopke21,
  23. M. Z. Jacobson22,
  24. J. W. Kaiser23,24,25,
  25. Z. Klimont26,
  26. U. Lohmann27,
  27. J. P. Schwarz3,
  28. D. Shindell28,
  29. T. Storelvmo29,
  30. S. G. Warren30,
  31. C. S. Zender31

DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50171

©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Issue

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

Accepted Article (Accepted, unedited articles published online and citable. The final edited and typeset version of record will appear in future.)

Additional Information(Show All)

Author InformationPublication History

Author Information

  1. 1

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA

  1. 2

Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

  1. 3

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

  1. 4

University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

  1. 5

Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo and Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

  1. 6

US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, USA

  1. 7

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA

  1. 8

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA

  1. 9

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany

  1. 10

US Department of Energy, Washington, DC, USA

  1. 11

Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, Germany

  1. 12

University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

  1. 13

NOAA Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA

  1. 14

Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany

  1. 15

Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway

  1. 16

Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, India

  1. 17

China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China

  1. 18

Peking University, Beijing, China

  1. 19

Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

  1. 20

Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA

  1. 21

Clarkson University, Potsdam, New York, USA

  1. 22

Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA

  1. 23

European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK

  1. 24

King’s College London, London, UK

  1. 25

Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany

  1. 26

International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

  1. 27

Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland

  1. 28

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA

  1. 29

Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA

  1. 30

University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA

  1. 31

University of California, Irvine, California, USA

*Corresponding author: T. C. Bond, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA. (yark@uiuc.edu)

  1. †

This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50171

Publication History

  1. Accepted manuscript online: 15 JAN 2013 07:30AM EST
  2. Manuscript Accepted: 4 JAN 2013
  3. Manuscript Revised: 6 DEC 2012
  4. Manuscript Received: 26 MAR 2012

Abstract

[1] Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption, influence on liquid, mixed-phase, and ice clouds, and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related; namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models, and should be increased by a factor of almost three. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the pre-industrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate-forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil-fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (-0.50 to +1.08) W m-2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (-0.06 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of -1.45 to +1.29 W m-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Pollution: Until it hurts business, it won’t clear up

Jan 15th, 2013
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By Lara Wozniak | 15 January 2013

Images of China’s pollution graced the front pages of international newspapers this past weekend, but will all the attention force change? Probably not.

Much ado was made of Beijing’s toxic pollution this past weekend — with photos of smog splashed across international newspaper fronts and broadcast journalists spewing that the end of the world was almost upon us.

The damning news behind the uproar was that, on January 12, harmful particulates in the air in China’s capital city were 36 times higher than the safe level recommended by the World Health Organisation.

Other big cities in China, including Hong Kong, have also been faring poorly. On Sunday morning, the ICC Tower in West Kowloon was only vaguely visible from across the harbour and, by lunchtime, Hong Kong Island was a hazy outline when viewed from Kowloon — despite the sun struggling to shine.

Only one out of the first 13 days of the year was deemed clear by the Hedley Environmental Index, which monitors and publishes the real-time public health costs of Hong Kong’s air pollution.

Hedley has claimed that pollution was a contributing factor in 253 premature deaths in Hong Kong during December. Worryingly, the number of doctor visits, hospital bed-days and premature deaths has dramatically risen during January, according to the activist website.

All this should concern government officials in China and Hong Kong, and employers as well. Sick days cost money.

Hong Kong plans to ban high-polluting diesel-powered heavy vehicles (such as trucks and buses) and offer subsidies to replace others — but so far this is talk in vague terms. And Hong Kong tends to move slowly on such projects.

One also has to wonder if the fuel going into all vehicles in China and Hong Kong — not just the diesel ones — is clean. Drive through a tunnel and see if you can see; they are reminiscent of the murky view you had in Holland Tunnel in New York in the 1970s when fuel laws were more lax in the US.

And we all know the other contributors to Hong Kong’s poor air — factories in China spewing pollutants, coal-fired power plants and dirty fuel in shipping as well.

Hong Kong officials have admitted that since air quality goals were enacted 25 years ago, the city has not once met its own low self-imposed goals.

Christine Loh Kung-wai, a former lawmaker and head of think-tank Civic Exchange, was appointed undersecretary for the environment in September. This is a step in the right direction. Loh has been critical of the public policy decision-making process, but she still has to convince legislators.

Existing laws also have to be enforced. China has strict pollution laws that have not made the air clean, as Beijing residents were reminded of this past weekend.

But has all this haze deterred professionals from moving to China? Probably not that much. While there is anecdotal evidence of a handful of senior corporate executives relocating to Bangkok, Singapore or Sydney from Beijing, Shanghai and Hong Kong, and others quitting the region entirely, pollution is always just one factor in a laundry list of other problems that prompt such moves. And most executives say the departures are a part of the normal churn.

Pollution isn’t a deal-breaker yet. “Though Beijing is a bigger problem for relocating people, Hong Kong is seen as a relatively clean haven after a stint on the mainland,” said one banker.

Another noted: “The growth market is here in Asia [as opposed to Europe or the US] and all growth markets come with hardships. Ours are schools and pollution.”

In other words (sadly), it’s all relative.

That is a shame, because if corporations lobbied governments it would be more effective than the likes of Loh banging her fist on the table. And the two forces together would make change. While China is arguably a harder place to apply corporate pressure, all it would take in Hong Kong is for a few banks to say: “We’re moving to Singapore” and Hong Kong would wake up and start changing policies fast. If the ICC Tower and the IFC Tower were suddenly vacant, action would be taken. And if Hong Kong actually started stepping ahead of the mainland (instead of watching the mainland catch up to Hong Kong on a variety of fronts) you would see changes in China too.

But that won’t happen, either. Why? What multinational bank is going to chance losing an investment banking or commercial banking opportunity with the likes of Cheung Kong or Hutchison? If you abandon Hong Kong, the city’s elite will knock you off the list for a potential deal. And no one will chance that.

Recycling plan may add HK$1 on a bottle of beer

Jan 15th, 2013
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Published on South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com)

Home > Recycling plan may add HK$1 on a bottle of beer

Recycling plan may add HK$1 on a bottle of beer

Submitted by admin on Jan 15th 2013, 12:00am

News›Hong Kong

ENVIRONMENT

Cheung Chi-fai chifai.cheung@scmp.com

Wine and spirits could also be hit under government scheme to help deal with Hong Kong’s annual 70,000 tonnes of glass waste

A HK$1 levy may be charged on bottles of beer, wine and spirits to help pay the recycling costs.

The scheme is being considered by environment officials and could be put up for public consultation as early as next month. It follows the 50 cent plastic bag levy introduced in 2009.

Recyclers welcomed the idea, which could help pay for recycling the 70,000 tonnes of waste glass generated in Hong Kong every year. However, the food and beverage trade said it would be unfair to single out glass, which accounted for only 3 per cent of total waste.

Bottled soft drinks or sauce bottles would escape the levy.

The money collected would subsidise local glass recyclers, who might be paid according to the volume of glass they treated.

Terence Wong Chee-ho, director of Laputa, one of two local factories making bricks with glass waste, welcomed the proposal. “It would help us to recover the transportation costs,” said Wong, whose bricks, made in its Tuen Mun plant, are used mainly by the government.

But Michael Glover, chairman of the Hong Kong Food, Drink and Grocery Association, which represents major beer makers and wine importers and has been in talks with officials on the issue for more than two years, said any option considered should “treat people fairly”.

“It is not a bottle or a can issue. It is a total waste issue … any system needs to be equitably shared against all users,” he said.

Glover also said the levy would not encourage people to separate glass from other waste.

A spokesman for listed Dynasty Fine Wines said the company supported the scheme and hoped it could be done in a similar way to the plastic bag levy. It did not think sales would be affected.

Keith Wong Wing-kit, a wine dealer, said the levy would have a far greater impact on beer.

“Each beer costs about HK$10 and they are more popular than wines. It would add up to lots of money if an importer brings in 100 million bottles a year,” he said.

Wong also said it would be highly unlikely that glass beer bottles would be replaced with plastic ones.

“Glass is superior as it doesn’t allow light in and it won’t have any reaction with the wine,” he said, adding that some low-end wines might switch to plastic bottles.

A spokesman for the Environmental Protection Department said recycling glass bottles was a priority and a consultation paper was being prepared.

The recycling rate of waste glass containers was just 5 per cent in 2011.

Hahn Chu Hon-keung, environmental affairs manager at Friends of the Earth, said the levy should cover all beverages and even plastic bottles to maximise the waste reduction benefits.

Topics:

Environment

Recycling plan

glass waste

Source URL (retrieved on Jan 15th 2013, 9:34pm): http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1128091/recycling-plan-may-add-hk1-bottle-beer

Hong Kong air pollution causes 3,000 deaths, costs billions annually

Jan 15th, 2013
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Submitted by calum.gordon on Jan 15th 2013, 6:31pm

News›Hong Kong

Lai Ying-kit

More than 150,000 people hospitalised with pollution-related illnesses last year, HKU survey shows

Air pollution caused more than 3,000 premature deaths and monetary loss of HK$39 billion last year to Hong Kong, according to a study by University of Hong Kong researchers.

Researchers from the school of public health developed an index in 2008 to provide real-time estimates for premature deaths, doctor visits, and days spent in hospital with illnesses associated with air pollution.

In their latest study, presented to the Legislative Council’s environmental affairs panel last Friday, they estimated that 3,069 people died prematurely last year due to air pollution and 151,300 were hospitalised for pollution-related illnesses.

The medical bills and the value of loss of productivity as a result was HK$39.4 billion, according to their estimates.

Professor Anthony Hedley, who developed the index and headed the study [1], told the panel that air pollution was the biggest threat to Hong Kong’s sustainable health and called for more attention to the problem.

“Probably, 100 per cent of the population is exposed, at unacceptable levels, to this environmental hazard,” he said.

Hedley said one latest trend was that marine emissions, from ships in inshore waters, had become a major cause of illness and deaths linked to air pollution.

His study also suggested that while everyone was exposed to pollution, the study found lower income groups in the city suffered from a higher death rate than other sectors.

It found that an increase of 10 microgram in pollutants could pose a greater risk to people who are unemployed, have lower education attainment and lower incomes than more affluent people.

Hedley compiled his index by analysing readings from the Environmental Protection Department’s Air Pollution Index (API).

He said the risk categories in the government indices bore no relationship to the bad health outcomes and he aimed to provide a more accessible picture of the related health risks.

To check the The Hedley Environmental Index, visit: http://hedleyindex.sph.hku.hk/home.php [1]

Topics:

Air Pollution in Hong Kong

More on this:

Hong Kong fails to meet air quality targets [2]

Hong Kong hosting Better Air Quality Conference – with a red face [3]

Source URL (retrieved on Jan 15th 2013, 9:24pm): http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1128685/air-pollution-causes-3000-deaths-costs-hk39b-annually

Links:
[1] http://The Hedley Environmental Index, visit: http://hedleyindex.sph.hku.hk/home.php
[2] http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1082376/hong-kong-fails-meet-air-quality-targets-25-years
[3] http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1094001/hong-kong-hosting-better-air-quality-conference-red-face

Smog or smoke? Zhejiang factory fire burns for three hours before residents notice

Jan 15th, 2013
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Submitted by amy.li on Jan 15th 2013, 10:26am

News›China

Amy Li

A furniture factory in China’s Zhejiang province became the latest victim to the heavy smog that has blanketed Beijing and several provinces and municipalities in northern and eastern China in the last few days.

The fire that engulfed the 1,000 sq m factory around midnight on Monday went unnoticed for three hours. It was hard for residents to tell the smoke from the smog, reported Xinhua state agency [1] on Monday.

When the residents finally reported the fire three hours later, it was already out of control.

It took firefighters 10 hours to put out the blaze, which had destroyed a large number of ready-made furniture, said Xinhua.

Beijing authorities on Tuesday have closed 100 chemical plants [2], construction sites and factories temporarily or cut back production to curb the worst air pollution in years.

While Beijing’s municipal government said it was the worst smog in many years, provinces including Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui and Hebei have also reported worsening air quality in the past few days.

Topics:

Beijing smog

Air Pollution

More on this:

Chinese media call for action as smog hits record levels [3]

Smog threat remains; Beijing issues first ever orange alert [4]

Source URL (retrieved on Jan 31st 2013, 10:29pm): http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1128437/smog-or-smoke-zhejiang-factory-fire-burns-three-hours-residents-notice

Links:
[1] http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2013-01/14/c_114364016.htm
[2] http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1128158/beijing-chemical-plants-and-factories-shut-try-curb-air-pollution
[3] http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1127814/chinese-state-media-calls-transparency-smog-reaches-40-times-safe-limit
[4] http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1127398/smog-threat-remains-beijing-issues-first-ever-orange-alert

Europe as a Recycling Society European Recycling Policies in relation to the actual recycling achieved Prepared

Jan 15th, 2013
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Download PDF : ETCSCP%202per2011

Zero waste reports Flanders and Taiwan

Jan 15th, 2013
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Available links for download:

Alaminos, Philippines – Village leadership has established comprehensive zero waste strategies, including backyard and village-level composting, source separation programs, and small-scale sorting facilities.

Buenos, Aires, Argentina – Cartoneros, or grassroots recyclers, have won legal and financial support from the city government as well as exclusive access to the city’s recyclables.

Flanders, Belgium – Flanders has the highest waste diversion rate in Europe (73%) thanks to regional policies that are highly coordinated with decentralized and efficient local programs.

Hernani, Spain – Citizens in Hernani stopped construction of two incinerators and established an ambitious program of door-to-door collection of source-separated waste, including organics.

La Pintana, Chile – This community found that recycling their largest segment of waste—fruits, vegetables, and yard clippings—could save them money, produce valuable compost, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Mumbai, India – In this large city, a highly decentralized, people-powered model of waste management has reduced the need for costly transportation and landfill space while providing green jobs for waste pickers.

Pune, India – Pune’s waste pickers have created a cooperative that is pioneering a wide-reaching and rigorous zero waste program.

San Francisco, California – San Francisco has achieved 77 percent waste diversion by enacting strong waste reduction legislation, innovating new programs, and working to create a culture of recycling and composting.

Taiwan – The community’s fierce opposition to incineration not only stopped the construction of dozens of burners, but also drove the government to adopt goals and programs for waste prevention and recycling.

Download PDF : ZW%20Flanders

ZW%20Taiwan

Emission standards for lorries and buses

Jan 15th, 2013
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Whereas for passenger cars, the standards are defined by vehicle driving distance, g/km, for lorries (trucks) they are defined by engine energy output, g/kWh, and are therefore in no way comparable. The following table contains a summary of the emission standards and their implementation dates. Dates in the tables refer to new type approvals; the dates for all type approvals are in most cases one year later (EU type approvals are valid longer than one year).

The official category name is heavy-duty diesel engines, which generally includes lorries and buses.

EU Emission Standards for HD Diesel Engines, g/kWh (smoke in m−1)

Tier Date Test cycle CO HC NOx PM Smoke
Euro I 1992, < 85 kW ECE R-49 4.5 1.1 8.0 0.612
1992, > 85 kW 4.5 1.1 8.0 0.36
Euro II October 1996 4.0 1.1 7.0 0.25
October 1998 4.0 1.1 7.0 0.15
Euro III October 1999 EEVs only ESC & ELR 1.0 0.25 2.0 0.02 0.15
October 2000 ESC & ELR 2.1 0.66 5.0 0.10
0.13*		 0.8
Euro IV October 2005 1.5 0.46 3.5 0.02 0.5
Euro V October 2008 1.5 0.46 2.0 0.02 0.5
Euro VI 31. December 2013[19] 1.5 0.13 0.4 0.01
* for engines of less than 0.75 dm³ swept volume per cylinder and a rated power speed of more than 3,000 per minute. EEV is “Enhanced environmentally friendly vehicle“.

Emission standards for Large Goods Vehicles

Euro norm emissions for category N3, EDC, (2000 and up)
Standard Date CO (g/kWh) NOx (g/kWh) HC (g/kWh) PM (g/kWh)
Euro 0 1988–1992 12.3 15.8 2.6 none
Euro I 1992–1995 4.9 9.0 1.23 0.40
Euro II 1995–1999 4.0 7.0 1.1 0.15
Euro III 1999–2005 2.1 5.0 0.66 0.1
Euro IV 2005–2008 1.5 3.5 0.46 0.02
Euro V 2008–2012 1.5 2.0 0.46 0.02

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards

Clean air should be a basic right

Jan 15th, 2013
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Submitted by admin on Jan 15th 2013, 12:00am

Comment› Insight & Opinion

SCMP Editorial

Hazardous smog – that has for days blanketed north, central and east China – makes plain the scale of the environmental challenge Xi Jinping’s incoming government faces. Air quality readings have been pushed off the charts by the foul-smelling, metallic-tasting pall that has cut visibility to a few hundred metres and less. Airports, highways, schools, offices and factories have been closed and thousands of people taken to hospitals. There could be no better way for a new administration to show it means business than by bringing back blue skies and breathable air.

Those should be basic rights for all people, no matter where they live. Unfortunately, cities struggle to attain them, especially those in fast-developing countries like China. Xi’s pledge of economic sustainability offers hope. The nation has prospered under a growth-at-all-costs model, but the environment has suffered enormously as a result. Air pollution in Beijing that is the worst in at least a decade has to provide an impetus for tough action.

Pictures of the capital’s skyline – buildings mere shadows amid the ghostly grey smog – do not make us think of a nation that is confidently forging into the future. But clearing the air will not be as easy as during the Olympic Games in 2008, when normal life was all but brought to a halt. Ringed by mountains that trap pollution, its roads choked by traffic and, in winter, locked in a chill, it represents a significant challenge. If clean-up measures are to be resolutely taken on, though, there is no better place to be a showpiece.

Vital steps are already under way. There is a huge investment in switching to cleaner fuels; efforts are being made to limit purchases of new cars; and, since the start of the year, better information on air pollution has been made available. Winds later this week are predicted to start blowing the smog away. But nature alone will not make the air in China’s cities safer. That will require a new kind of thinking, a sustainable model of development and great resolve.

Topics:

Air Pollution

Smog

China

Beijing

Air quality

Source URL (retrieved on Jan 15th 2013, 6:26am): http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1128105/clean-air-should-be-basic-right

After such a long wait, policy address is bound to disappoint

Jan 15th, 2013
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Submitted by admin on Jan 15th 2013, 12:00am

Business

MONITOR TOM HOLLAND

Tom Holland

Given the unrealistic expectations, Leung may well focus on areas where his actions can bring about immediate effect, such as cutting pollution

Poor old C.Y. I’m sure the chief executive had only the best intentions when he decided to postpone his first policy address from October to January. But by now, he has surely learned the folly of delay. Over those extra three months, the expectations of decisive policy action have risen to absurd heights.

Now Leung faces demands from dozens of assorted groups, who variously expect him to bring down property prices, house the poor, provide health care for the elderly, introduce universal pensions, reduce working hours, improve the city’s education system and either enact or bury equal rights legislation for gays, depending on their bent.

As a result, when Leung stands up tomorrow to deliver his long-awaited policy address, he is certain to disappoint the vast majority of these supplicants.

It seems that C.Y. has decided – probably wisely – not to press ahead with legislation on standard working hours. While improving employment conditions is a worthy aim, it’s doubtful whether the government should really be in the business of telling people how much they should or should not work.

It also looks as if C.Y. will duck universal pensions on the grounds, according to the Sunday Morning Post, that Western countries offering state pensions have run up crippling debts.

This is a bizarre reading of the situation. Part of the reason European countries are in such trouble is precisely because they didn’t plan ahead to finance their old-age welfare provisions, leaving them with huge unfunded liabilities. If there is a lesson to be learned here, it is not to ignore the topic, but to launch a viable fully funded state-backed pension scheme as soon as possible.

Still with two of the main demands off the table, C.Y. is left in dire need of some initiatives with political impact.

On property affordability, Leung could follow Singapore and announce another round of tax rises aimed at deterring investors from buying multiple apartments.

But after the last round of cooling measures introduced at the end of October failed to dent prices, it is doubtful whether further steps to cool demand will much impress Hongkongers priced out of the market.

Increasing supply is another matter, and it is likely Leung will announce new policies to increase the supply of both public housing and building land, possibly by pressing developers to use their untouched holdings of former farming land.

But it will be years before those measures have a real effect on people’s lives, so if C.Y. wants to make a popular splash in the near term, he will have to look elsewhere.

Happily, there are few things he could do in short order to improve the city’s air quality.

Past attempts to cut pollution have centred on offering partial subsidies to bus and truck companies to phase out old, more polluting vehicles, or giving incentives to shipping companies to switch to low-sulphur fuels.

But incentives alone don’t work. Covering 30 per cent of the cost is not enough to persuade a company to change. The government must also impose stiff penalties on those that fail to cut their pollution emissions.

C.Y. could easily do this tomorrow, for example by ordering highly polluting diesel buses off the city’s busiest streets and by announcing regulations forcing ships berthing in Hong Kong to switch to low-sulphur fuels.

The immediate effect on air quality would be appreciable, and the action would go some way to restoring C.Y.’s reputation as a leader who can effect change.

Of course, not everyone will be happy, and some business interests will protest furiously.

But given the unrealistic expectations following the long wait for C.Y.’s first policy address, people are bound to be disappointed anyway. He may as well accept that and get on with doing what he can.4a0f5e639e158733cd1eefe7f14b83fc.jpg

C.Y. Leung could include cutting air quality in his first policy address.

tom.holland@scmp.com [1]

Topics:

CY Leung policy address 2013

Air Pollution in Hong Kong

Unemployment

Property market in Hong Kong

Source URL (retrieved on Jan 15th 2013, 5:59am): http://www.scmp.com/business/article/1128123/after-such-long-wait-policy-address-bound-disappoint

Links:
[1] mailto:tom.holland@scmp.com